NFL Free Agency: Aaron Jones Heads to Minnesota.

Well, this is going to take some getting used to.

The move is the latest in the Vikings’ quest to surround their expected incoming rookie QB and/or Sam Darnold with a rather great group of skill-position talent. While Father Time is coming for Jones (30 next December), the longtime stud looked better than ever down the stretch of last season upon returning from a hamstring injury:

Week 16: 21 carries-127 rush yards-0 TD
Week 17: 20-120-0
Week 18: 22-111-0
Wild Card: 21-118-3
Divisional Round: 18-108-0

Jones was his usual efficient self on the ground all season long, ranking eighth in EPA per rush and yards per carry in 2023 (including playoffs). Going from the PFF’s 11th-ranked offensive line to their 12th should hopefully be a fairly smooth transition.

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The main two problems:

Scoring upside. The Green Bay offense was playing as well as any group in the league down the stretch of last season … and Sam Darnold is the current betting favorite to be under center come Week 1 for the Vikings.
Pass-game usage. Kevin O’Connell has taken a page out of his old boss Sean McVay’s book and largely refrained from featuring his RBs in the passing game: The Vikings join the Ravens and Rams as the only three teams averaging fewer than 75 total targets to their RBs over the past two seasons.

While it would have been a lot cooler if Jones had taken his talents to Dallas or Houston, there’s at least a chance the Vikings put forward an above-average offense. Nick Mullens was putting up some numbers to end last season for crying out loud.

Competition in the form of Ty Chandler and Kene Nwangwu shouldn’t be much of a factor considering both were multiple injuries away from making a factor in 2023. Perhaps this is Jones’ path to continued high-end success: A bigger down-to-down role than he’s ever had would certainly help make up for the likely loss of overall TD and target upside.

Ultimately, Jones’ age and questionable offensive environment will likely push him down from his current RB16 ADP to more of a borderline RB2 placement alongside guys like Austin Ekeler (RB23), Najee Harris (RB24) and James Conner (RB25). Chandler becomes a distant handcuff option at best and isn’t someone who should be prioritized until LATE in fantasy drafts.

Good for Jones on waking up and choosing revenge, but it’s safe to say his 2024 upside in Fantasy Land is quite a bit lower on Tuesday morning than it was to start the week.

NFL Free Agency: Aaron Jones Heads to Minnesota.

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