NFL Free Agency: D'Andre Swift Heads To Chicago.
Ian Hartitz breaks down D'Andre Swift signing with the Chicago Bears on a three-year deal worth $24 million and what it means for fantasy football in 2024.
The Bears decided to legally tamper in a hurry on this lovely Monday afternoon, agreeing to a three-year deal worth up to $24 million with former Lions and Eagles RB D’Andre Swift.
As is the case with most of these NFL contracts, the actual $14 million guaranteed is quite a bit more manageable.
Still, it's one of the largest deals of the last nine free agency cycles … and let’s just say the track record of teams spending heavily on new RBs hasn’t been great.
Kudos to Swift for racking up a career-high 1,263 yards in 2023, working as the Eagles’ lead back essentially all season after Kenneth Gainwell suffered a rib injury in Week 1.
Of course, the tush push movement also hurt Swift’s overall counting numbers. Only Joe Mixon (7) was stopped at the one-yard line and failed to score on the same drive more than Swift (6) last season.
The ex-Lions talent posted above-average marks in most efficiency metrics and provided an early-season spark as a pass-catcher, although there were two fairly glaring red flags:
- Swift was brutal at consistently picking up yards after contact. This is true regarding raw yards after contact (2.42, 45th) and especially in the percentage of carries to achieve at least two yards after contact (49%, last).
- The Eagles ignored him as a pass-catcher down the stretch. Largely believed to be one of the game’s better receiving backs, Swift’s average of 3.3 receptions for 19.7 yards per game in Weeks 1-11 sunk to 1.4 catches and seven yards per game during his final seven contests.
It'd make sense if the dollar amount afforded to Swift results in larger pass-down and goal-line roles in Chicago; just realize the continued presence of a dual-threat QB in Caleb Williams or Justin Fields might not lead to the best fantasy ceiling possible. Both the Bears (28th) under head coach Matt Eberflus and the Seahawks (27th) under new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron posted bottom-six marks in terms of total RB targets over the past two seasons.
The good news is that RBs typically don’t begin to fall off in fantasy land until their late 20s; Swift should continue to be functioning at something close to 100% for the duration of his tenure in Chicago if the injury Gods can chill out a bit.
Ultimately, beggars can't be choosers – Swift's status as the Bears' undisputed lead back should lead to a warranted low-end RB2 ADP; he'll be in play next to guys like Aaron Jones (RB16), Alvin Kamara (RB17) and Tyjae Spears (RB18) if not higher.
This range feels reasonable – especially considering these backs are going in Round 6 or later – but something closer to the likes of James Cook (RB10) or Isiah Pacheco (RB11) in Rounds 3 and 4 would be a bit tougher to stomach considering the potential for the Bears offense to not exactly rank among the league’s best scoring units.
At a minimum, Swift should be done pushing his quarterback’s ass every time the offense gets down to the one-yard line. Talk about a pretty good consolation prize to go along with all those millions of dollars.
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