NFL Free Agency: Packers Land Josh Jacobs in Surprise Signing.
Ian Hartitz breaks down the surprising move by the Packers, who signed Josh Jacobs on Monday, and what it means for fantasy football in 2024.
The first truly shocking signing of free agency has taken place: Green Bay has signed former Raiders RB Josh Jacobs.
While the Packers were expected to replace A.J. Dillon to some extent, signing a name like Jacobs comes as a surprise from an organization that hasn’t gone out of its way to add high-ish priced skill-position talent in free agency over the years. The signing does make more sense after the team also released longtime stud RB Aaron Jones.
Maybe things work out. Jacobs commonly found himself next to guys like Tony Pollard and Nick Chubb when looking at the league’s best rushers in forcing missed tackles and picking up yards after contact during the first four seasons of his career. Jacobs is only 26 years old and is just one year removed from working as the NFL’s leading rusher.
That said: Jacobs was objectively one of the league’s least efficient rushers last season.
Jacobs among 49 RBs with 90-plus carries in 2023
- PFF rush grade: 70.1 (No. 40)
- Explosive run play rate: 3.9% (No. 48)
- Yards per carry above expected: -0.37 (No. 41)
- Yards per carry: 3.5 (No. 44)
- Yards after contact per carry: 2.4 (No. 46)
- Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.12 (tied for No. 43)
The second metric above is particularly concerning. Jacobs joined Dillon as two of the league’s least-explosive RBs in 2023.
An abbreviated training camp due to the lack of a long-term contract didn’t help, and this Raiders offense also wasn’t exactly the world’s greatest scoring juggernaut.
Still, even adding additional offensive environment context doesn’t explain this big of a dropoff. It’s tough to overly blame his problems on the offensive line considering the Raiders have ranked 14th and 13th in yards before contact per carry over the past two seasons. His percentage of carries with eight-plus defenders in the box wasn’t much different in 2023 (21.5%) compared to 2022 (20.6%) as well.
Maybe Jacobs was simply a helluva lot more injured throughout the season than anybody knew. Even then: His efficiency numbers have a long way to go before even approaching average, let alone returning to the upper tier of performers at the position. Sixth-year RBs haven’t been too dominant in fantasy land over the last decade's worth of action.
Head coach Matt LaFleur has been hesitant to overly lean on one RB over the years; don't be surprised if Emmanuel Wilson, Patrick Taylor and/or an RB to be named later emerges with a solid enough backup role.
Still, it's hard to not be intrigued with Jacobs' volume-based upside inside of a Packers offense that was as good as any group in the league down the stretch of 2021. Borderline RB1 treatment alongside guys like Rachaad White (RB12 ADP) and Kenneth Walker (RB13) feels warranted.
This also means Zamir White is the man in Las Vegas for now; just realize the Raiders were reluctant to feature him on passing downs last year. There's still a long way to go in free agency and the draft before White is truly in the clear. General manager Tom Telesco has already gone on record stating, “There are a lot of good running backs in this draft. A lot,” and also added, “We won’t lean on one guy, we need two or three backs.”
Yay for RBs getting paid!
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