The NFC South has been one of the NFL’s more balanced divisions since the league’s realignment back in 2002:

• Saints (7 NFC South titles)
• Buccaneers (6)
• Panthers (5)
• Falcons (4)

Tampa Bay has taken home three consecutive division titles following Drew Brees’s retirement, which snapped a four-year streak by New Orleans prior to that. These two teams are again poised to be the favorites heading into 2024, though a QB upgrade in Atlanta or big upgrades across the board from Carolina could still change things.

Below is a breakdown of every NFC South team’s top-three needs this offseason when taking into consideration the 2023 performance of those position units, 2024 salary cap allocation, and more.

• Key free agents are unrestricted unless otherwise indicated and are listed in no particular order.
• 2024 draft picks don’t include projected compensatory selections.
• Special thanks to Over The Cap for the salary cap and contract information.

For more divisional breakdowns on team needs, see below!

• NFC East
• NFC West
• NFC North
• AFC East
• AFC West
• AFC North
• AFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Team Needs: Quarterback, wide receiver, and safety
• Effective Cap Space: $33.8 million (9th)
• Draft picks (6): 1.26, 2.57, 3.90, 4.125, 6.202, 7.243
• Key free agents: WR Mike Evans, QB Baker Mayfield, C Ryan Jensen, LG Aaron Stinnie, LB Devin White, LB Lavonte David, S Antoine Winfield Jr., and S Ryan Neal

Quarterback

It seems like all parties involved are hopeful that Baker Mayfield will be back in Tampa Bay next season. Still, it’s not a guarantee, and the Buccaneers will have to think long and hard about whether or not Mayfield is truly worth a big-time deal.

Don’t get it twisted: the Pro Bowl MVP (lol) played the best football of his six-year career with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at his disposal, but even then, Mayfield wasn't exactly elite in 2023. Among 39 QBs with 200-plus dropbacks last year (including postseason), here's how Mayfield ranked:

• EPA per dropback: +0.137 (No. 9)
• CPOE: -0.2% (No. 22)
• Pro Football Focus (PFF) pass grade: 74.8 (No. 18)
• Passer rating: 96 (No. 12)
• Yards per attempt: 7.4 (No. 12)

Jan 15, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) throws against the Philadelphia Eagles during the first half of a 2024 NFC wild card game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

Add in the loss of offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who departed for Carolina, and it’s hardly a guarantee that bringing back Mayfield is the right move this offseason despite an upset playoff win over the Eagles.

Clearly, the much-criticized former No. 1 overall pick is deserving of a starting job somewhere, but the question is whether or not teams are better off avoiding pricey mid-tier QBs like Mayfield, Derek Carr, and Daniel Jones altogether in favor of hopefully one day finding a true game-changer at the position.

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Wide Receiver

Evans has gone a perfect 10-for-10 in logging 1,000-yard seasons since joining the Buccaneers in 2014, and neither his 2023 film nor his underlying efficiency numbers showed any real signs of decline this past season.

The question is whether or not the Buccaneers will fork over enough money to make Evans think twice about leaving in free agency. Designating Russell Gage as a post-June 1 cut would save $10 million against the cap while leaving “just” $3.4 million in dead money, and Godwin ($20 million savings; $7.5 million dead money) is also someone who could be moved if push comes to shove.

Regardless of the eventual decision on Evans and Godwin, Tampa Bay's front office needs to take more shots at the WR position in April. The Buccaneers join the Bills as the only two NFL teams that haven't drafted a single WR on Day 1 or Day 2 over the last five NFL Drafts.

Safety

Starters Antoine Winfield Jr. and Ryan Neal are both unrestricted free agents this offseason. Winfield was PFF’s second-highest-graded safety in 2023 and is a prime candidate for the franchise tag if the Buccaneers can’t figure out a long-term deal.

On the other hand, Neal was PFF’s eighth-lowest-graded player at the position and isn't even guaranteed to keep his starting role in 2024. Last year, Tampa Bay's defense ranked just 22nd in EPA allowed per dropback (+0.062) and contested a league-low 11.7% of their opponent’s targets.

Cornerback is an issue as well, but the secondary might still be best suited with an investment in a reliable sidekick for Winfield at safety, especially given that they currently rank seventh-lowest in the NFL in salary devoted to the safety position.

Honorable mentions

The offensive line finished 2023 as PFF’s 13th-best unit despite missing C Ryan Jensen (knee) for a second year in a row. This would be the main spot on the line that needs investment should Jensen fail to make a comeback in 2024.

Another spot on defense outside of safety that needs answers is at linebacker, as both Lavonte David and Devin White are free agents this offseason. Tampa Bay currently has the ninth-fewest 2024 dollars in the league devoted to the linebacker position.

Finally, adding to a pass rush that ranked just 20th (34.4%) in pressure rate last season can’t hurt. Fantasy Life’s Matthew Freedman has the Buccaneers filling this need in the form of Washington EDGE Bralen Trice with their first-round pick in his first 2024 mock draft.

New Orleans Saints

• Team Needs: Quarterback, wide receiver, and defensive line
• Effective Cap Space: -$87.8 million (32nd)
• Draft picks (6): 1.14, 2.45, 5.148, 6.191, 6.200, 7.229
• Key free agents: QB Jameis Winston, WR Michael Thomas, WR Rashid Shaheed (ERFA), LT Andrus Peat, and CB Isaac Yiadom

Quarterback

On the one hand, New Orleans currently has more than $12 million 2024 dollars devoted to their offensive line than any other team in the league. They also used two of their last five first-round picks to bolster the offensive line.

On the other hand, that still wasn't enough to generate competent offensive line play in 2023. The Saints' offensive line ranked just 23rd per PFF, and they had to bench 2022 first-rounder Trevor Penning just six games into the season.

To be fair, some of the offensive line's shortcomings can be attributed partially to an elderly RB and immobile QB playing behind it. The Saints' RBs ranked 29th in missed tackles forced per carry (0.13) and averaged a league-low 2.4 yards after contact per attempt (2.4). And as for Carr, he was pretty great from a clean pocket (109.5 passer rating, No. 6) but got mediocre in a hurry when under pressure (64.4, No. 19).

Fantasy Life’s Matthew Freedman has the Saints filling this need in the form of Oregon State OT Taliese Fuaga with their first-round pick in his first 2024 mock draft.

Wide Receiver

Perhaps the Saints can just re-sign both Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed, but if not, they’ll have some work to do. After all, Chris Olave is a rising young star, but he can't do it alone.

Among 77 WRs who've seen 100-plus targets in the last two seasons, here's how Olave ranks:

• PFF Receiving Grade: 87.2 (No. 14)
• Yards per route run: 2.23 (No. 13)
• Targets per route run: 25.9% (No. 9)
• Yards per reception: 13.6 (No. 29)

Oct 29, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) gets hit in the head with the ball while missing the catch in front of Indianapolis Colts safety Julian Blackmon (32) during the second half at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Thomas will turn 31 years old in March and isn’t expected to be back with the team if some of his comments in January were any indication.

Shaheed is an exclusive rights free agent and someone who should be a bit more affordable. The noted Mardi Gras fan earned first-team All-Pro honors as a punt returner in 2023 and has generally made the most out of his opportunities on offense as well. A wild but true fact: Shaheed has led all NFL pass-catchers in yards per target (11.1) among 125 players with 100-plus targets over the past two seasons.

The cash-strapped Saints aren’t likely to be big spenders in free agency, but using at least one of their two top-45 overall picks on the WR position could make sense. After all, Olave is the only WR that the Saints have drafted on Day 1 or Day 2 in the last five NFL Drafts combined.

Defensive Line

Longtime stalwart Cameron Jordan will turn 35 years old in July and wasn’t his usual game-wrecking self in 2023 (42nd in overall PFF grade among 146 qualifying EDGEs). Fellow EDGE Carl Granderson (46th) and IDL Malcolm Roach (29th) are the only other members of the Saints defensive line that turned in top-50 grades last season.

As a result, it's unsurprising that the Saints' front seven didn't rate very well in a number of metrics in 2023:

• Pressure rate: 33.1% (No. 22)
• Sack rate: 5.4% (No. 29)
• Rush yards before contact per attempt allowed: 1.2 (No. 14)
• Explosive run play rate allowed: 14.5% (No. 29)

Kudos to the front office for having used both of their top-40 overall picks in last year's NFL Draft on the defensive line, but neither DT Bryan Bresee nor EDGE Isaiah Foskey managed to crack PFF’s top-100 players at their position during their largely unimpressive debut campaigns. It's time for New Orleans to try again.

Honorable mentions

If you squint hard enough, Carr is a passable QB, particularly when given the benefit of fairly consistent clean pockets. Ultimately, it doesn't matter because the Saints can’t realistically get out of his deal without a trade partner until after the upcoming 2024 season, making it unlikely any sort of real QB competition will be added before next offseason.

At RB, New Orleans fielded the league’s worst group in yards after contact per carry last season. And yet, the Saints' RBs are currently set to make more money than any other team's RBs in 2024 (largely due to Alvin Kamara's salary), so it’s unlikely that New Orleans will be able to add much help at the position.

Atlanta Falcons

• Team Needs: Quarterback, wide receiver, and EDGE
• Effective Cap Space: $20.1 million (14th)
• Draft picks (7): 1.08, 2.43, 3.74, 3.79, 4.109, 5.141, 6.198
• Key free agents: RB Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Van Jefferson, DL Calais Campbell, EDGE Bud Dupree, LB Nate Landman (ERFA), and CB Jeff Okudah

Quarterback

Film dudes loved Desmond Ridder for portions of the 2023 season after he made some big-time throws on occasion. The problem was that almost nobody threw more horrific INTs than Ridder this past year; we’re talking about some absolutely brutal throws in big moments of games, which led to a 5.6% turnover-worthy play rate for Ridder, the second-highest in the NFL behind only Mac Jones (5.8%).

All of this was made even worse due to the reality that Atlanta had a strong surrounding cast for Ridder on offense (at least Mac Jones had the excuse of not having any playmakers at his disposal). Here are the top-10 offenses from 2023 in average PFF receiving, rushing, and blocking grades (everything except passing):

1. 49ers (80.1)
2. Lions (79.8)
3. Ravens (76.9)
4. Dolphins (76.1)
5. Eagles (76)
6. Rams (74.8)
7. Bills (74.4)
8. Cowboys (73.8)
9. Falcons (73.3)
10. Vikings (73.1)

Ultimately, Ridder has accounted for 19 total TDs and 17 total turnovers in 17 career starts. Not great! Unfortunately, the Falcons have strong skill-position players on offense but likely lack the draft capital needed to select one of the top-three QBs in this 2024 rookie class.

Wide Receiver

Drake London is a dog and still just 22 years old. Per Draft Sharks’ Jared Smola, no WR has a bigger gap between actual (six) and expected (13) TDs over the last two seasons. It’d make a lot of sense if London is the primary beneficiary of a new-and-improved QB under center in 2024.

That said, the Falcons enter 2024 as the only NFL offense with under $10 million devoted to their WR room. 2023 “contributors” Van Jefferson, Mack Hollins, KhaDarel Hodge, and Scott Miller are all unrestricted free agents.

Dec 10, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London (5) catches a pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Maybe one or two of those depth WRs will remain in Atlanta (Hodge was the most fun of that group last season), but they still need major help behind London. The Falcons have been one of just eight teams that have drafted one or no WRs in of the top-three rounds of the last five NFL Drafts.

Contrary to what Falcons fans have been used to seeing: it’s legal in 2024 for offenses to have more than one good WR at a time. More, please.

EDGE

The Falcons could potentially need to replace all three of Calais Campbell, Bud Dupree, and Kentavius Street this offseason, as they're all unrestricted free agents.

In fact, only the Broncos, Commanders, Rams, and Panthers are currently set to spend less money in 2024 on EDGE defenders. And even if Atlanta were to retain one or more of them, there’s still plenty of work to be done here. This pass rush simply wasn’t good enough in 2023:

• Pressure rate: 32.7% (No. 24)
• Pressure when not blitzing: 29.3% (No. 24)
• Quick pressure rate (under 2.5 seconds): 11.6% (No. 31)

The team has used three Day 2 picks on EDGE defenders over the last five drafts, but unfortunately, none of Marlon Davidson (released in 2022), Arnold Ebiketie (PFF’s 99th-highest graded EDGE) nor Zach Harrison (83rd) exactly made an overly positive impact last season.

Fantasy Life’s Matthew Freedman has the Falcons filling this need in the form of Alabama EDGE Dallas Turner with their first-round pick in his first 2024 mock draft.

Honorable mentions

Improving the pass rush should help matters, but investing a bit more in the back end also might not be a bad idea considering that the Falcons graded out as PFF’s 26th-ranked defense in pure coverage. This isn’t necessarily an indictment on A.J. Terrell or Jessie Bates, but they could use some help in improving what was the 21st-ranked defense in EPA allowed per dropback in 2023.

Carolina Panthers

• Team Needs: Wide receiver, EDGE, and cornerback
• Effective Cap Space: $26.5 million (12th)
• Draft picks (6): 2.33, 3.65, 4.101, 5.140, 5.164, 6.179
• Key free agents: WR D.J. Chark, EDGE Brian Burns, EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos, IDL DeShawn Williams, LB Frankie Luvu, CB Troy Hill, CB Shaquill Griffin, and CB C.J. Henderson

Wide Receiver

Adam Thielen told Father Time to f*ck right off in 2023, having earned ESPN’s 11th-highest rating among 109 qualifying WRs on his way to posting a 103-1,014-4 receiving line on the season.

Of course, there was a big-time drop-off in Thielen's production after mid-October, and it’s probably wishful thinking to expect an encore of similar proportions from the soon-to-be 34-year-old veteran WR.

And even if Thielen were to find a way to replicate his 2023 success, it would behoove the Panthers well to upgrade from D.J. Chark and Jonathan Mingo on the outside. Chark is a free agent and had some truly rough moments down the stretch, and the rookie led all WRs in targets without a TD (85). Mingo also averaged a position-low 4.9 yards per target among 80 WRs with at least 50 targets last season.

Bryce Young had some bad misses along the way to posting a bottom-10 catchable deep ball rate (43%) on the season, but it wasn't all on him. Here’s to hoping that the Panthers will devote the bulk of their salary cap and draft capital this offseason to finding pass-catching help for Young.

EDGE

Both Brian Burns and Yetur Gross-Matos are unrestricted free agents. If they were to go elsewhere this offseason, that would leave the Panthers as the NFL’s only team with less than $5 million devoted to their EDGE defenders in 2024.

While Burns is tentatively expected to be retained on the franchise tag, more help is needed regardless, as Carolina had the worst pressure rate (29.4%) in the league last year. Burns (11.1% pressure rate, 69th) was the only Panthers EDGE rusher to rank inside the league’s top-75 players at the position in getting consistent pressure on the QB.

The team retained defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, who will need to figure out better ways to disrupt opposing passers if he hopes to improve on the team’s standing as just the 18th-best defense in EPA allowed per dropback (+0.033) in 2023.

Cornerback

All of C.J. Henderson, Shaquill Griffin, and Troy Hill are unrestricted free agents this offseason. If they were to depart, that could leave the Panthers with very little depth behind starters Jaycee Horn and Donte Jackson.

The good news is that Horn was living up to his status as a top-10 overall draft pick before suffering a season-ending hamstring injury, as his 83.0 PFF coverage grade was the ninth-highest mark among 150 qualifying cornerbacks last season.

Dec 3, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13) is tackled by Carolina Panthers cornerback Jaycee Horn (8) in the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

The bad news is that Horn is literally the only Day 1 or Day 2 cornerback drafted by Carolina since 2018.

Adding an influx of young talent in the secondary would go a long way toward maintaining the sort of performance that helped this defense allow bottom-three marks to opposing WRs in terms of receiving yards (2,063) and TDs (11) last year.

Honorable mentions

Young is coming off one of the worst seasons for a rookie QB ever, but hopefully he'll have a longer leash than Josh Rosen did. Either way, though QB is an area for growth, the Panthers should stick with Young and build around him in 2024 after he showed at least a few flashes down the stretch last year.

Likewise, even though neither Chuba Hubbard nor Miles Sanders exactly balled out on a weekly basis, there’s not that Carolina can do at the RB position given Sanders’s contract. The Panthers have the league’s eighth-most expensive backfield at the moment heading into 2024 after they gave Sanders a four-year, $25 million deal last offseason (yikes).

We honestly probably could have just rolled with “offense” for the Panthers. Their offensive line ranked a miserable 29th last year and allowed the fourth-highest pressure rate in the league, even if Young didn’t exactly help matters when it came to limiting the amount of pressures that were converted into sacks.

Carolina also ranked just 27th in yards before contact per carry (1.0), so it’s safe to say that all parties involved in the 29th-ranked scoring offense from 2023 weren’t great. Fun fact: this is the only team that has yet to score a single point in the year 2024.