NFL Week 11 Early Betting Lines. Identifying Market Adjustments.

In NFL betting, getting the right number can be almost more important than getting the right teams. If you’re constantly getting the worst numbers — i.e., getting negative closing line value (CLV) — it can be the difference between winning and losing on a handful of bets each season.

The best way to attack the NFL market is early in the week, before the sharps have had a chance to grab all the value for themselves.

That’s the goal of this piece — to highlight the bets you should be locking in early, gobbling up as much sweet, sweet CLV as possible.

Let’s take a look at five games that have my eye for Week 11.

Cleveland Browns (-4.0) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers:

Current Line: Browns -4.0 (-110; Caesars)
Lookahead Line: Browns -3.5
Target Range: Browns -4.0 or better

I’m starting with this game because I think it’s one you need to lock in early. The Browns are legit contenders. The have the best defense in football, and their offense is starting to flourish as well. It may not always look pretty, but the Browns have now scored at least 27 points in three of their past four games.

The team engineered one of the most impressive wins of the season Sunday vs. the Ravens. Baltimore entered the week as the No. 1 team in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings by a wide margin. They were listed as 8.74 points better than the average team on a neutral field, while the No. 2 team (49ers) was just +6.64. The fact that the Browns were able to upset them in Baltimore as underdogs of nearly a full touchdown is eye-opening.

Meanwhile, the Steelers continue to grind out ugly wins. They’re now 6-3 on the season, but their metrics are clearly unsustainable. They’ve been outscored by 26 points this season, so their expected record but them well below their actual mark.

The Steelers were also outgained once again on Sunday, this time by a mediocre Packers’ squad. Jordan Love and company racked up nearly 400 yards of total offense, but they were done in by two turnovers and a 20% touchdown rate in the red zone.

The Steelers cant continue to survive on Mike Tomlin’s voodoo magic forever, and this seems like the perfect time to sell high on them. The Browns are capable of doing everything the Steelers can defensively but better, and they’re better on offense too. I expect this line to close at 4.5 or higher — it’s already up to 4.5 at FanDuel — so I’m locking in Browns -4.0 now.

You can tail the -4.0 at Caesars, where you can get your first bet of up to $1,000 on the house when you sign up below!

Washington Commanders (-9.5) vs. New York Giants:

Current Line: Commanders -9.5 (-110; FanDuel)
Lookahead Line: Commanders -8.0
Target Range: Commanders -10.0 or better

I’m upset at myself for not betting this line last week when the number first came out. This Giants team is simply not capable of competing at the current time.

No matter how bad you thought things were going to look vs. the Cowboys, they were probably worse. Dallas absolutely steamrolled them, racking up 49 points and 640 yards of total offense. They had Tommy DeVito under constant duress whenever the Giants had the ball, and New York managed just 172 yards of their own. The Giants did manage to score a bit in garbage time, but cover was never really in doubt for Dallas.

The Giants might make a change at quarterback heading into Week 11, but I don’t think it’ll matter. Matt Barkley might be a smidge better than DeVito, but no one has a chance behind their current offensive line. And if the defense is going to continue to hemorrhage yards and points, their offense simply cannot keep up.

Massey-Peabody had the Commanders as roughly 10 points better than the Giants on a neutral field heading into Week 10, and I have to imagine that gap is a little wider after what happened on Sunday. While the Giants were getting rolled, the Commanders managed to keep things pretty competitive in Seattle vs. the Seahawks.

While 9.5 points might feel like a lot to lay with Washington, I still don’t think it’s enough. I expect this line to close above double digits.

New York Jets (+7.0) at Buffalo Bills:

Current Line: Jets +7.0 (-110; FanDuel)
Lookahead Line: Jets +6.5
Target Range: Jets +7.0 or better

Both of these squads have yet to play at the time of writing, but I don’t need to see how the Jets fare on Sunday Night Football or the Bills fare on Monday Night Football to know I’m going to have interest in Gang Green.

For all their deficiencies, the Jets remain pretty incredible on the defensive side of the ball. They're up to seventh in EPA/play defensively, and they’re second in that category since Week 6. In terms of pass defense, no one has been better than the Jets over that time frame.

The Jets defense is also known for their ability to frazzle Josh Allen. Allen had four turnovers against the Jets in their first matchup this season, and he averaged just 4.62 adjusted yards per attempt in two matchups vs. the Jets last year.

Sep 11, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets linebacker C.J. Mosley (57) pressures Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

The Bills are one of the most pass-heavy offenses in football, so if Allen can’t make things happen consistently, this offense is typically unsuccessful. I don’t expect Allen to miraculously figure out the Jets’ defense in just one week.

You could wait to see how the Bills fare on Monday Night Football before locking this in, but I think this number is more likely to go down than up. If the Bills fail to cover for the sixth straight week, there probably won’t be any sevens available on Tuesday.

You can tail the -7.0 at FanDuel, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you place a first bet of $5 or more after signing up below!

Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles:

Current Line: Chiefs -2.5 (-110; FanDuel)
Lookahead Line: Chiefs -3.0
Target Range: Chiefs -3.0 or better

Sports betting doesn’t always have to be hard. One of my general rules is that if you can bet on Patrick Mahomes to win a football game — which is essentially all he has to do to cover a 2.5-point spread — you do it.

Mahomes has played in 20 games (including postseason) as an underdog or a favorite of less than a field goal. He’s gone 15-4-1 ATS in those contests, good for an absurd +50.2% ROI.

Additionally, Andy Reid is known for being an offensive genius, so it’s not surprising that he thrives with extra time to prepare. He’s 12-8 in his last 20 regular season games following a bye week, and he’ll have even more time than usual with this game being played on Monday Night Football.

The Chiefs managed to beat the Eagles by a field goal last year, and they didn’t even have the benefit of home field for that contest. This year’s version of the Eagles isn’t nearly as good on defense — they were 20th in yards per game entering Week 10 — so I’m not overthinking this one.

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans Over 48.0:

Current Total: 48.0 (-110; DraftKings)
Lookahead Total: 47.0
Target Range: Over 48.5 or better

There has been a lot of talk about unders this season, and deservedly so. The under was 84-52-1 heading into Sunday’s slate, and scoring was at its lowest point since 2009.

However, the over officially fought back in Week 10. It went 8-4 on Sunday, despite the fact that the Chiefs, Eagles, Dolphins and Rams were all on bye. We even had a few games get into the 60s!

Is scoring officially back, or was this just a one-week blip? That remains to be seen, but I feel pretty confident about points being scored in this matchup. The Texans have played in back-to-back games with at least 57 points, and their offense has established itself as one of the best in the league.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals and Falcons combined for 48 points in Kyler Murray’s first game back. He looked as electric as ever, so the Cardinals’ offense should continue to improve as he gets further removed from his injury.

I think this total might have approached 50 points in years past, but the onslaught of unders has made the sportsbooks cautious about posting big totals. Let’s take advantage.

You can tail the over on DraftKings Sportsbook and get $200 in bonus bets after placing your first bet of $5 or more when you sign up below!

NFL Week 11 Early Betting Lines. Identifying Market Adjustments.

Cleveland Browns (-4.0) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers:

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Washington Commanders (-9.5) vs. New York Giants:

New York Jets (+7.0) at Buffalo Bills:

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Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles:

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans Over 48.0:

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