Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers

The Packers and 49ers are both storied NFL franchises, and they’ll add another chapter to their history with this divisional round playoff matchup this week. This will be the 10th postseason meeting between the two teams, and San Francisco heads into this game with a 5-4 edge.

They last met in 2022, when the 49ers squeaked out a 13-10 victory at Lambeau Field. Of course, both teams have undergone significant transformations since that matchup.

San Francisco was a defense-first team two years ago, but their offense has reached new heights this season. Brock Purdy put together an MVP-caliber campaign at QB, ranking at or near the top in virtually every QB efficiency metric. As a result, the 49ers led the league in EPA per play by a comfortable margin.

Dec 31, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) warms up before the game against the Washington Commanders at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Outside of one dreadful performance against the Ravens, this offense has been basically unstoppable when at full strength. Excluding the three games without Deebo Samuel and a meaningless Week 18 contest, the 49ers scored a mind-boggling 32.3 points per game in 2023. Baltimore was the only team to hold them under 27 points with Samuel playing a full complement of snaps, and San Francisco scored at least 30 points in nine games this year.

Their loss to the Ravens raised some questions about whether Purdy can lead this team to a Super Bowl in spite of his strong season overall, but it's worth noting that Baltimore ranked second in EPA allowed per play defensively this season. They’ve done a fantastic job against opposing QBs all year, and any QB would've likely struggled in that game after having lost three offensive linemen to injury in-game.

Green Bay's defense isn't remotely in the same weight class as Baltimore. The Packers ranked just 23rd in EPA allowed per play this season, and they’ve been below-average against both the run and the pass. Their defense may have held their own against the Cowboys, but I expect them to be the latest victim of the 49ers’ buzz saw.

Fortunately, Green Bay does have a fantastic offense that could keep up with that of San Francisco. Jordan Love entered the year as a question mark, but he has officially cemented his status among the NFL’s brightest young stars. After having sat behind Aaron Rodgers for two years, Love impressed in his first season as a starter despite some inconsistency early in the year, which isn't all that surprising.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) throws against the Dallas Cowboys during the second quarter of their wild card playoff game Sunday, January 14, 2024 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Green Bay defeated Dallas 48-32. Photo Credit: Wm. Glasheen USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK

However, Love transformed over the second half of the 2023 season. From Week 9 onward, he averaged 8.56 adjusted yards per attempt with 21 TD passes to only three INTs. Love also ranked third in EPA + CPOE composite behind only Purdy and Dak Prescott over that span.

But Love saved his best performance of the year for the playoffs. He torched the Cowboys for 273 yards and three TDs on just 21 pass attempts, good for an eye-popping 15.81 adjusted yards per attempt. It wasn’t just impressive for a QB making his first postseason appearance; it was one of the best performances among all QBs for the entire season, period.

Love is going to face another stiff test against a stout 49ers defense, but expect him to be ready to step up to the challenge. San Francisco's defense has been good but not quite as dominant as in years past, and they’re built fairly similarly to the Dallas defense that Love just faced.

The 49ers boast a ferocious pass rush, so if they can build up a lead against you, it allows Nick Bosa & Co. to pin their ears back. However, if you can keep the game competitive, they can be beaten. San Francisco has been particularly vulnerable against the run in 2023 (26th in rush defense EPA), so Aaron Jones could have a big impact once again this week after having bulldozed his way through the Cowboys for over 100 yards and three TDs. 

Ultimately, I’m expecting both offenses to score with regularity in this matchup, and I’ve already locked a play on the over into the NFL Bet Tracker. I grabbed it at 49.5, and the number has since touched 50 total points.

A big X-factor in this game will be the weather. The weather can only get so bad in California, so don’t expect things to be nearly as bad as they were in Kansas City or Buffalo last weekend. However, the current forecast calls for rain and winds of over 10 miles per hour. That's not high enough to significantly impact my handicapping process, but it could result in the game total decreasing before kickoff. If you're interested in betting the over, you might be better off waiting to see if the public action could drive the number down over the next few days.