Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys

This game will pit Dallas, the No. 2 seed, against Green Bay, the No. 7 seed, but that undersells how juicy this matchup is. From a storyline perspective, there’s plenty to get excited about. This game will feature Mike McCarthy against his former team, potential revenge for Cowboys fans for the Dez Bryant “catch”, and finally, perhaps answer the age-old question about whether Dallas can win a playoff game.

The Cowboys haven’t made it past the divisional round of the playoffs in nearly 30 years. Tony Romo and Dak Prescott simply haven’t been able to get this team over the hump when it matters most in January.

It’s not that the Cowboys haven’t been good. This is their sixth trip to the playoffs in the last 10 years, and it’s their third straight season with 12 wins.

When Dallas has played at their best this year, they’ve been able to hang with anyone. They ranked second in EPA per play on offense and fourth on defense, making them the only team in football with a top-five unit on both sides of the ball. The Cowboys' roster is full of playmakers, but they'll need to show up when it matters most.

Jan 7, 2024; Landover, Maryland, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) passes the ball as Washington Commanders defensive tackle Phidarian Mathis (98) defends during the fourth quarter at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Having the No. 2 seed should help. The Cowboys have been an absolute wagon in Dallas in 2023 with a perfect 8-0 record and 6-2 ATS at home. They also won their eight home games by an average of 21.5 points per game, and no team covered the spread by a greater average margin at home than the Cowboys.

From an injury perspective, the only names to watch for Dallas are Stephon Gilmore and Zack Martin. Gilmore exited last week’s game with a shoulder injury, but after a positive MRI result, he seems determined to suit up on Saturday. Martin missed last week’s game with an illness, but it doesn't seem serious, so he should return to the lineup for a crucial playoff game.

The same can't be said for Green Bay. Their WR corps has been extremely banged up lately, and Romeo Doubs was the latest victim. He exited their Week 17 game with a chest injury, and after a precautionary trip to the hospital, he’s currently considered day-to-day. Christian Watson has a chance to return this week, but that's uncertain after he missed the last five games with a hamstring injury.

The status of Packers WRs will be important to monitor. If they’re unavailable, it would leave Green Bay with a very green WR corps. Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Malik Heath would be their top-three options, and all three WRs are rookies.

Fortunately, it hasn’t really mattered who Jordan Love throws to for much of the year. The first-year starter has been slicing and dicing his way through opposing secondaries over the second half of the season. Since Week 9, Love has averaged 8.56 adjusted yards per attempt with 21 TDs to just three INTs. He also ranks third in EPA + CPOE over that span behind only Prescott and Brock Purdy.

While it seems like the Packers have found yet another franchise QB, it’s fair to question how he'll perform in his first postseason start. Historically, that’s been a brutal spot for QBs, as first-time playoff QBs have gone 17-35-1 ATS against experienced postseason QBs since 2002.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) throws under pressure from Chicago Bears defensive tackle Justin Jones (93) during their football game Sunday, January 7, 2024, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The Packers defeated the Bears 17-9. Photo Credit: Wm. Glasheen / USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK

This Cowboys defense will also be the toughest test to date for Love during his recent hot streak. He did find some success against quality units like the Chiefs and Bears, but most of his strong performances over the last couple of months came against weak opponents.

I was fortunate enough to grab the Cowboys at -7.0 early in the week, as it's since shifted to Cowboys -7.5. I’m a lot less excited about Dallas at that number, but it’s very possible that this line could dip back down to 7.0 points before kickoff. Most of the sharp action has sided with Green Bay, as they've received 87% of the dollars on 56% of the bets per the Action Network.

If this number were to stay at 7.5, the best way to attack the Cowboys might be with a teaser. Dropping them down to -1.5 and pairing them with a second team could make a lot of sense. Love has the potential to push the Packers into a backdoor cover, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which they pull off an upset on the road.