Packers at Dolphins (-4.5) – 49.5 total

The first game of the NFL’s Christmas Day slate should be a fun one. The Dolphins are currently riding a three-game losing streak, but they remain in good shape to make the postseason. They’re sitting at 8-6, which gives them a 72% chance of qualifying for the playoffs. If they win this week versus the Packers, their playoff odds improve to 99%, but a loss is not a killer. They finish the season with divisional matchups against the Patriots and Jets, who are also in the hunt for Wild Card spots. If they win both of those contests, they’ll qualify for the postseason regardless of what happens against the Packers.

However, the Packers need to basically win out to have any chance of reaching the playoffs. A stretch of seven losses in an eight-game span put them behind the 8-ball, but two straight wins have put them on the periphery of the NFC playoff picture. Their current playoff odds are just eight percent, and a loss to the Dolphins drops them to just one percent. A win against the Dolphins increases their playoff odds to 20%, and if they can follow that up with wins against the Vikings and Lions, they will likely make the postseason at 9-8.

That’s a steep hill to climb, but the Packers have started to play better as of late. Their offense has scored at least 24 points in four of their past five games, and they are as healthy as they’ve been all year at receiver. Romeo Doubs joined emerging rookie Christian Watson and veterans Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb last week, giving the team their top four receivers for the first time in a while. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon also form a solid 1-2 punch at running back, and Aaron Rodgers obviously has an impressive resume as a three-time MVP.

The Packers’ offense is going to need to show up if they’re going to have any chance against the Dolphins. Their offense has been one of the best in the league all season, ranking ninth in points per game and fifth in yards per game.

They did hit a brief two-game skid against the 49ers and Chargers, but their offense bounced back in difficult conditions last week versus the Bills. They racked up 29 points and 405 yards of total offense, and while that wasn’t enough to win, it bodes well for their prospects moving forward.

The sharps have been all over the Packers to start the week, which has caused this number to dip to 4.0 in some locations. The thought of grabbing Rodgers as a moderate underdog is definitely appealing. Since he took over as the Packers’ starting quarterback, the Packers have gone 20-14 against the spread as an underdog of greater than a field goal. Not all of those games have been started by Rodgers, but most of them have been. Even in what has largely been a dreadful year by his standards, Rodgers is still 2-1 against the spread in that scenario this season.

With the Dolphins slumping and this game ultimately not meaning all that much to them, this could be the right time to target Green Bay.