Packers at Eagles (-6.5) – 46.5 total

The Packers and Eagles are two teams operating on opposite ends of the spectrum in 2022. Green Bay has completely underwhelmed to this point and are on the verge of being completely out of the playoff race with a 4-7 record. The Eagles are the rare bird (get it) that has outperformed pre-season hype, compiling a 9-1 record to date.

Despite the big disparity in wins between these two teams, the actual performances by their offensive and defensive units on the field haven’t been outlandishly different. Green Bay still ranks fifth in offensive rush DVOA and have been solid at defending against the pass. Philadelphia is slightly better in almost all facets, but has also shown signs of potentially regressing in certain areas. That’s occurred most significantly thus far on defense, where they’ve drifted to seventh-worst in rush DVOA and most recently allowed the Colts to gain 4.6 yards per carry against them last week. 

The ground is where Green Bay needs to attack and it’s fine to dream that this is where we’ll see AJ Dillon finally break out for a true upside game. The Packers rush game was shut down by the stiff run defense of Tennessee in their last game, but Dillon gained 5.0 YPC and encouragingly saw 13 carries in a shootout against Dallas during the prior week. Expect the Packers to give Dillon and Aaron Jones all they can handle this week and for them to revert back to the formula that won them the game against the last NFC North team they faced. 

This week does set up as a natural letdown spot for Christian Watson, but don’t be shocked if he bucks the trend of WRs getting shut down by Philadelphia's secondary. Watson has moved into a nearly-every-down role and is averaging an elite 2.88 fantasy points per target this season (first in the NFL). The Eagles have slid a bit in the passing defense as well, allowing Terry McLaurin and Michael Pittman to both post games with 75+ yards against them the last two weeks. 

The Eagles offense remains somewhat of a by-committee approach. No Eagles receiver has received more than 9 targets the last three weeks, even with Dallas Goedert on IR. Both DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown remain capable of big fantasy games, even with reduced volume, but don’t expect them to push their ceiling in usage in this game. Green Bay ranks fourth-last against the run in defensive DVOA, so do look for both Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders to pile up the rush attempts. Sanders has had a solid bounce-back season, going for more yards (757) in 10 starts this season than he did in 12 last year (754), and is still averaging a healthy 4.9 yards per carry. 

These offenses should be efficient in stacking points given the poor rush defenses on both sides, although the rush heavy play-calling may make the pace too slow to hit the over of 46.5 points. I do expect Green Bay to give the Eagles all they can handle given the somewhat similar makeups of these teams (and the fact Aaron Rodgers now has a legit WR1 to work with). The Packers are 7-2 against the spread as road underdogs since 2020 under Matt LaFleur and are a legit threat to hand Philadelphia their second loss in three games.