Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants

Have the Packers done it again? Green Bay has had a long history of producing superstar QBs, having won Super Bowls with Bart Starr, Brett Favre, and Aaron Rodgers. Could Jordan Love be next in line to hoist a trophy named after the most lauded coach in Packers history?

That seems a lot less preposterous than it would’ve at the beginning of the year. Love has led the Packers to four wins in their last five games, propelling them to 6-6 on the year. They’d be the No. 7 seed in the NFC if the playoffs started today, so Green Bay is in the thick of the postseason hunt in spite of a 2-5 start.

Love has been the biggest reason for their recent improvement. He’s averaged 8.64 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) over the past five games, and he’s racked up 11 TD passes to just two INTs over that span. The first-year starter also ranks 10th in EPA + CPOE composite over that time frame, putting him in the same range as QBs like C.J. Stroud, Tua Tagovailoa, and Josh Allen.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) passes the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, December 3, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The Packers won the game, 27-19. Photo Credit: Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin

Last week’s upset win over the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football was particularly impressive.

Kansas City isn’t having a great year offensively, but they’ve been phenomenal defensively against the pass, ranking fourth in dropback EPA allowed on defense. Though a few Chiefs injuries on defense helped, Love still deserves credit for having shredded them for 267 yards, three TDs, and no turnovers. Love's performance was even more remarkable considering that he got minimal help from the run game with Aaron Jones out.

Unfortunately, the Packers did suffer a big injury towards the end of that contest. Christian Watson broke out with a two-TD performance that night but left with a hamstring injury during the team’s final drive.

His status for Monday night at New York is still up in the air, but it seems unlikely that Watson will be available considering that he already missed the first three games of 2023 with a similar hamstring injury. While Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs have both flashed as well, Watson's potential absence would still be a daunting loss for Green Bay's young, budding offense to overcome.

The good news is that Watson's potential absence may not impact the Packers quite as much against this feeble Giants defense. New York has had a disastrous season after having overperformed and earned a surprise playoff berth in 2022. Through 13 weeks, the Giants rank 26th or worse in yards and points per game on both offense and defense. Overall, they’re dead last in the league in both yardage and scoring differential.

The Giants are riding a two-game winning streak and coming off a bye, but it’s still hard to be that impressed by their recent success. They beat the Commanders in a game where Washington had six turnovers, and they beat the Patriots despite having put up only 220 yards of total offense. Against a Green Bay team that seems to have found their stride, it’s hard to imagine New York being quite as fortunate on Monday night.

New York Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito (15) is shown during the first quarter at MetLife Stadium, Sunday, November 26, 2023. Photo Credit: Kevin R. Wexler / USA TODAY NETWORK

Tommy DeVito is expected to make his fourth consecutive start for the G-Men. He unsurprisingly struggled against a stout Cowboys defense in Week 10, but in the two games since, the undrafted rookie QB has played fairly well.

Over his last two starts, DeVito has averaged 10.14 AY/A on 25.5 pass attempts. Even though the Giants haven’t asked him to do that much, DeVito has been efficient with his opportunities.

The Packers are currently 6.5-point road favorites, and it seems as though this number is headed toward seven. There's already been plenty of sharp and public money alike, as Green Bay has received 85% of the bets and 89% of the dollars as of this writing per the Action Network.

If you like the Packers in this spot as I do, it’s probably best to grab them now. The difference between 6.5 and 7.0 points is considerable, and you’re not missing out on much value if the line happens to move back toward the Giants later in the week.