Packers at Lions

This is the second meeting between these teams, with the Lions shipping a dominant 34-20 win back in Week 4. Since that game the Lions have carved out six more wins (against just one loss) while the Packers have struggled, going just 2-4 over that span. 

So is there any reason to expect a different result this time around? 

If the Packers do keep things closer in the rematch, it will likely be off a big game from Jordan Love, who has set career highs in passing yards two games in a row—and threw for his first 300-yard game last week against the Chargers. 

Love has been gaining confidence over the last month and leads the league with 18+ completions gaining 30 yards or more. Part of his success has been centered around the fact that he finally has a full complement of healthy receivers. Christian Watson hasn’t panned out as the WR1 for fantasy that many people thought he would be this season, but with him on the outside and Jayden Reed (4.45 40M) in the slot, the big plays have happened more often of late for the Packers. 

Reed (3-46-1, 4-46 against the Chargers) looks like a player on the verge of developing into a Deebo Samuel-like weapon for Green Bay—and a potentially great trade target for dynasty leagues. 

Nov 12, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed (11) against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the fourth quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

The fact Love is progressing is good news for the Packers this week too, as they’ll likely need him to throw the ball 35+ times in this matchup. Both RBs Aaron Jones and Emanuel Wilson (who was on the verge of taking over AJ Dillon’s job) got injured last Sunday and look doubtful for this game. The Lions also have a fantastic defensive line that allows just 3.8 yards per carry (6th best in the league). 

The other reason the Packers will need Love to perform this week is the fact that the Lions' offense is a true juggernaut. Detroit enters the week having scored nine offensive TDs over their last two games and are 5th in offensive DVOA. The Packers have a laundry list of players on the injury report this week, including starting LB De'Vondre Campbell. Detroit ran the ball with impunity the last time these two teams met, with their RBs gaining 161 yards on the day. 

Since that game, rookie Jahmyr Gibbs has been more integrated into the Lions' offense and has become the team's WR2 in some ways. Gibbs has posted at least a 16% target share in four straight starts and gone for 30+ yards as a receiver in four straight games as well. 

The lookahead line for this game was around +4/-4 and it has (not shockingly) risen all the way up to +7.5/-7.5. The Packers' recent success (2-1 in their last three games) and Jordan Love’s recent surge may keep this line in the 7-7.5 region, but I also wouldn’t be shocked to see more money come in on Detroit and push this up to 8.5. 

Green Bay has a lot of solid young players, but the Lions are on the verge of becoming one of the league's juggernauts and may be lucking out by catching a severely wounded Packers defense. If you like Detroit, grabbing them before Thursday may gain you some solid closing line value. 

For props, look for the Lions' RBs and Love to pile up the rushing and passing yards, respectively. There should be a heavy passing game script for the Packers' offense late in this game, where Love and his receivers will be able to pad the stat sheet.