Packers at Panthers 

The Packers' playoff hopes took a major hit last week when they lost to the Buccaneers. Green Bay now sits at 6-8 and behind five teams at 7-7 in the standings. It’s a tough spot for a team that had a lot of momentum after beating two top-tier teams, the Lions and Chiefs, in back-to-back weeks. 

Part of the issue of late for the Packers has been the absence of Christian Watson, whose ability to separate downfield was missed sorely against the Giants and Buccaneers. We won’t know if Watson will be available for Week 16 until later on in the week, but for now, he should be thought of as questionable at best. 

Despite the losses, Jordan Love continued his stellar play against Tampa Bay.  Over his last five games, he’s compiled 11 TDs against just one INT and averaged 7.28 yards per attempt against Tampa. While the Panthers are a bottom-dwelling team, and going through a horrific rebuild, their pass defense has gotten healthy over the last few weeks and shouldn’t be taken lightly in this spot. They’ve allowed under 200 yards passing in eight straight games and have INTs in three straight games as well. 

The return of top cover man Jaycee Horn has given the Panthers a true shutdown corner and will likely force Love into some tough situations IF they can’t move the ball on the ground. The good news for Green Bay? Aaron Jones returned last week and took 17 touches—and didn’t get injured. Having him available against a Carolina rush defense that ranks dead last in success rate against the run will be a huge boon for Green Bay, who didn’t have AJ Dillon (thumb) last week. If both Green Bay RBs are healthy, I’d expect them to go with a more run-heavy gameplan than we’ve seen in past weeks. 

Dec 17, 2023; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones (33) celebrates earning a first down during the first quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

On the Carolina side, their passing offense isn’t worth dwelling on much. Bryce Young has been a disaster and has shown no improvement throughout the season, despite an entire overhaul of the coaching staff. The one bright spot for them of late has been their ability to pound the rock, specifically with RB Chuba Hubbard, who enters this game having taken 22-24-25 carries in his last three consecutive games. It’s safe to say that the Panthers want Young doing as little as possible from here until the season ends, and this week gives them little reason to deviate from that plan. 

Green Bay ranks just 22nd in success rate against the run and has allowed 5.3 yards per attempt against the last three weeks—the second-worst mark in the league over that span. I love Hubbard’s chances for a massive game here and will actively be scouting the over on his rushing yards once props get released. 

The spread in this game has bounced around between 4.5 to 5.5 since opening. As much as I dislike the thought of betting on the Panthers, this is a solid spot for them. Jordan Love may be down his best receiver, and Carolina’s rush defense won’t be under as much pressure this week from a Packers offense that ranks just 16th in rush EPA. Moreover, they may not have to throw the ball more than 20 times in this game. Carolina has been running the ball better of late since they started featuring Hubbard (12th in success rate per rush since Week 13) and face a failing Packers rush defense. 

I’m not sure if the Panthers pull out the win, but considering how Green Bay’s defense has let them down the last two weeks (24 points to the Giants, 34 points to the Buccaneers) I don’t want to be trusting them to cover 5+ points in this spot either. The Panthers make for a decent spread bet, and the overs on both teams' lead RBs look worth attacking in the prop market.