Green Bay Packers at Las Vegas Raiders

The last game of Week 5 might not be the most exciting, but what else are you going to do but watch? Clean? Spend time with your family? Better yourself as a human being? Not a chance.

The Packers and Raiders have both been competitive in most of their games this season. Green Bay has played in two games decided by just one point, and all but one of Las Vegas's games have been decided by a TD or less.

With that in mind, it’s not surprising that this line is at Packers -2.0. That’s a pretty drastic move from the look-ahead line of Raiders -1.5, but when the numbers are around zero, they’re not particularly important. Any time the line is less than three points, you’re likely going to need the team you're betting on to win straight up in order for them to cover.

On paper, Green Bay's offense has been a bright spot. They rank 10th in points per game and 12th in EPA per play through four weeks. That said, I don’t think that they’re nearly as good as those numbers might suggest.

The Packers did most of their damage when they tore up the Bears in Week 1. They managed 38 points in that matchup, but pretty much every offense looks like the Chiefs this season when they're facing the Bears. If you exclude Week 1, the Packers dip to 20th in EPA per play.

Sep 28, 2023; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) warms up before game against the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Green Bay also ranks just 27th in yards per game thus far on the season, so they’ve been far less effective at moving the ball than they have been at scoring. That suggests that they’ve been fortunate, making them a regression candidate moving forward.

We saw some of that regression in Week 4. The Lions absolutely dominated the Packers in the first half, taking a 27-3 lead into halftime. Detroit then took their foot off the gas a bit in the second half, but Green Bay really couldn’t do much to close the gap.

Fortunately, the Raiders do represent a good matchup. Their defense has been exploitable all season, so whatever the Packers’ best is, we should see it in this spot.

The Raiders are coming off a seven-point loss against the Chargers, but they made a heroic comeback despite missing starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo. He missed the game with a concussion, so Aidan O’Connell made the first start of his NFL career.

Sep 24, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (10) throws the ball against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Garoppolo should be able to return to the lineup on Monday night, which is fantastic news for Las Vegas. While O’Connell showed some guts, he wasn’t very effective. In fact, the hapless rookie was the second-worst starter in Week 4 in EPA + CPOE, beating out only Mac Jones.

With Garoppolo back in the lineup, the Raiders' offense gets a sizable upgrade. He’s 15th in EPA + CPOE for the year, and Garoppolo has already displayed excellent chemistry with Davante Adams.

As long as he’s back, Las Vegas should be able to move the ball against Green Bay. The Packers' defense is in the middle of the pack in terms of EPA allowed per play, but they’ve faced three subpar offenses in the Bears, Falcons, and Saints. When Green Bay's defense finally faced a competent opposing offensive unit in the Lions last Thursday night, they promptly got shredded for 34 points.

Ultimately, the Raiders seem like the correct side in this matchup. I don’t see a huge difference between these two teams, but the current line suggests the Packers are at least a field goal better than the Raiders on a neutral field. They might be a bit better, but a field goal feels like a stretch.

That said, Green Bay will be coming off a “mini bye” after playing on Thursday Night Football, and they project to be significantly healthier.

Elgton Jenkins and Jaire Alexander both returned to the practice field this week, as did Luke Musgrave after exiting with concussion symptoms last week. If the Packers get all of those guys back in the lineup as well as Christian Watson and Aaron Jones at 100%, the betting line might not be as inaccurate as it currently seems.

Ultimately, the injury report will be the determining factor on whether or not the Las Vegas +2.0 is worth playing this week.