Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers 

The Packers and Steelers both come into this game off ugly wins … and really, ugly wins is all these teams are capable of right now. Green Bay ranks out 21st in offensive DVOA rankings for the year while Pittsburgh is not far in front of them at 18th. Defensively, the Steelers have a big edge as they are 7th in overall defensive DVOA rating while the Packers are 22nd. 

The WRs, on both sides, are worth noting in this game. Christian Watson (1-37) had another miserable game and was underthrown by his QB on a potential long TD pass in the first half against Los Angeles. He did make one big play but came down awkwardly and left the game shortly after. Luckily for the Packers, he avoided concussion and may just be dealing with bruising. He’ll be worth monitoring this week. 

On the flip side, there is George Pickens of the Steelers who also had a poor game (2-1-0) last week and has just three catches over his last two games. Pickens went on social media after the game and wrote “free me” while also removing any Steelers mentions from his social media accounts. Luckily, his coach is Mike Tomlin who is a master of people management and embraced Pickens' desire to get the ball more. The matchup with Green Bay may not look great on paper, but the Packers just traded away a stalwart corner in Rasul Douglas and Pickens is ripe for the squeaky wheel game. 

Realistically, though, this should be a spot where the Steelers can run the ball. Green Bay has held up well to weaker rush offenses the past two weeks but has cratered against above average offensive lines. Detroit, Atlanta, and even Denver’s lead RBs all put up big numbers against their defense, making this a good spot for both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. 

Warren was arguably the MVP for Pittsburgh against Tennessee, going for 8.8 yards per carry (11-88) against a tougher run defense in Tennessee. Despite Warren being the far more efficient back, the Steelers continue to give Harris 50% of the carries on a weekly basis and expecting that to change this week will likely end in disappointment. Both look like good fantasy options this week but will likely eat into each other’s production again and make them tricky targets for DFS and betting. 

Nov 2, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren (30) runs against Tennessee Titans cornerback Kristian Fulton (26) during the third quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Pittsburgh won 20-16. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Packers, offensively, have been a complete dud all season, and last week they struggled to put up points against a declining Rams unit for three quarters. The Steelers' secondary is nothing to write home about, but Jordan Love hasn’t managed to crack 250 passing yards in any of his last three games and now faces a team that is sixth in pressure rate. 

One bright spot for Green Bay is the fact that Aaron Jones (20-73-1, 4-26) seems healthy again. Jones is one of the Packers' most explosive players and the Steelers are just 26th in yards allowed per carry. Expect a heavy dose of Jones and AJ Dillon again as the two combined for 29 carries last week. 

This game sets up very similarly to the Steelers' game from Week 9 against Tennessee. The Packers are a team who will want to avoid putting their young QB in third and longs very often, and as a result will be running the ball a lot and looking to quick timing throws and screens to keep Pittsburgh off balance. The Steelers will likely get some explosive plays from Pickens, Warren, and Diontae Johnson (70+ yards in three straight games) but sputter a bunch in between. 

Both of these teams have been under machines this year (Pittsburgh 7-1 to under, Green Bay 5-3 to under) and I expect that trend will likely stay true here. The number is still sitting around 38.5 at some sportsbooks and as long as it stays above 37.0 likely makes for a good under bet for Week 10.