Packers at Vikings

The Packers' and Vikings' seasons come down to this game. Both teams are 7-8 and trail the 8-7 Seahawks and Rams, who are in the final two playoff positions in the NFC that have yet to be clinched. 

If we’re comparing these teams against each other, it’s clear that while the Vikings have the edge on defense, Jordan Love gives the Packers a massive edge at the quarterback position. Over his last five games, Love’s stat line reads like an MVP candidate as he’s posted the following numbers: 128/186 (comp./att.) - 68.8% - 1359 yds. - 11 TDs - 1 INT - 108.2 rating. This week he’ll face a Vikings pass defense that just allowed Jared Goff to paper-cut them to death in Week 16. 

Goff completed 75% of his passes last week against the Lions, and Love—who may also get his top two receivers back in Christian Watson and Jayden Reed—will certainly be looking to make the blitz-happy Vikings defense pay in a similar fashion. 

Love’s rise has been great to see, but the Packers have needed him to be great over the back half of the season as their defense has regressed and remains without some of its top players. Green Bay has allowed an atrocious 9.5 yards per attempt over the last three games to opposing passers, the worst mark in the league over that span by a wide margin. Last week even Bryce Young (312-2, 8.66 yards per attempt) was able to break out against Green Bay, recording the best game of his career to date in the losing effort.

Dec 24, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) looks to pass in the second quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

This week, they’ll face Nick Mullens and the best receiver in football, Justin Jefferson. Jefferson looked in top form last week as he tore apart a weaker Lions secondary (6-141-1), and he’ll almost certainly be in line for a similar output against Green Bay, who has now allowed four TDs to opposing WRs over their last two games. 

This is also a great spot for Ty Chandler to bounce back. He struggled against a tough Detroit front but this week faces a Green Bay line that ranks just 20th in success rate against the run. Chandler played on 66% of the snaps last week and took 80% of the carries against Detroit. While those numbers could potentially come down a little bit this week, Chandler should continue to lead the Vikings' backs in usage and figures to have a far better shot at a big day. 

The spread for this game has moved under 3.0 and sits at 2.0 at most sportsbooks. Neither of these teams have looked good of late, but it’s the Vikings who look like they’re at the end of their line. They wasted a big game from Justin Jefferson last week, and their defense will again be under pressure from a top-tier QB who has been near unstoppable when he’s had his top receivers healthy. 

Minnesota has just one win over their last six games, and that win was the ugly 3-0 soccer game that broke out against the Raiders in Week 14. After the win last week, the Matt LaFleur-led Packers have now gone 17-2 SU in the month of December, and I like betting that that record will improve this week. 

For player props, I’d keep an eye on Jordan Love’s passing total when it drops. The last two QBs Minnesota has faced have averaged 290 yards per game and a 72% completion rate. Given Love’s form, it won’t be shocking if he matches or exceeds these numbers and sails over his passing totals for Week 17.