Carolina Panthers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The Panthers coming into Jacksonville couldn’t have happened at a better time for the Jaguars. They were once right in the thick of the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but they’ve since slipped all the way back to 8-7. They’re tied atop the AFC South with the Colts and Texans, though the Jaguars currently hold the edge due to tiebreakers.

Fortunately, Jacksonville has the easiest remaining schedule in the league with matchups against Carolina and Tennessee to close the year. If they can take care of business in these two final regular season contests, they will maintain their lead over the rest of the AFC South and win the division.

Of course, it doesn’t really matter who Jacksonville plays in the final two weeks if they don’t fix their own flaws. They’re currently riding a four-game losing streak that culminated in last week’s disappointing road loss to the Buccaneers.

That said, their recent losses have come partially due to bad luck. Trevor Lawrence has dealt with a variety of ailments over the past few weeks, and he picked up another one on Sunday. He’s now dealing with a right shoulder injury, and Ian Rapoport has reported that his status for Sunday’s matchup against Carolina is yet to be determined.

Dec 24, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) drops back to pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Considering the stakes for the Jaguars – and how much Lawrence has already played through this season – it’d be pretty surprising if their star QB was on the sidelines. However, his effectiveness would remain a major question mark even if he's active.

Lawrence wasn’t good when on the field against Tampa Bay this past week, having completed just 59% of his passes with two INTs and a measly average of 4.86 adjusted yards per attempt. He was eventually relieved by C.J. Beathard, and the team has also signed Matt Barkley to the active roster to give themselves a bit of insurance at the QB position.

The Panthers have just two wins on the year, but the team has looked significantly better since having moved on from Frank Reich. Carolina beat Atlanta in an ugly game two weeks ago, and they lost to Green Bay by only three points last week. The Panthers also generated a season-high 394 yards of total offense against the Packers, and Bryce Young finally showed some flashes of potential.

Dec 24, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) throws during the first quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

It’s hard to call Young’s rookie season thus far anything but a disaster, but he turned in an excellent performance against Green Bay. He logged 312 passing yards and two TDs with an impressive 9.78 adjusted yards per attempt.

This is the time of year where you typically have to worry about tanking, but Carolina doesn’t have any incentive to do so. The Bears will get their first-round pick this season, so it doesn’t matter if the Panthers pick up another win or two down the stretch.

Carolina is currently listed as a seven-point underdog across the industry after having opened as an eight-point dog on the lookahead line. Looking purely at their records, you’d probably think that the Jaguars are a value.

Instead, the sharps have targeted Carolina here. Part of that stems from the uncertainty with Lawrence, as there would be plenty of closing line value (CLV) on the Panthers if he’s ultimately ruled out. However, even if Lawrence does play, I think that seven points might still be too many. Carolina has played their best football as of late while Jacksonville has been an overvalued team all season.