Patriots at Bills

The Bills got some great news recently as teammate Damar Hamlin has been showing various signs of improvement over the last 24 hours. 

It’s obviously been an emotion-filled week for the Bills, but all indications show that the players have been given a jolt by this latest round of good news and look ready to take on the Patriots this Sunday. 

The ramifications of the Bills-Bengals game being canceled and labeled a no contest also means that while Buffalo is no longer in control of their destiny – as they’d need a Chiefs loss to the Raiders to have a shot at the one seed – they can secure the 2nd seed with a win. By gaining the second seed with a win, they may also take away home field advantage for the Chiefs based on the new guidelines the NFL has proposed for dealing with the playoffs in this very unprecedented situation. 

Onto the actual game, this would have been a tough spot for the Patriots’ offense to begin. New England could only manage 10 points scored in the first meeting between these two teams this year and will be facing a defense ranked 4th in defensive DVOA this season. With the exception of the 32-29 shootout game against the Dolphins a couple weeks ago, the Bills have now allowed 13 or fewer points in three of their last four games. 

As the current occupants of the final playoff spot, the Patriots obviously need to win this game so expect to see RB Rhamondre Stevenson be given a massive workload. He managed 5.4 yards per carry in the first match-up between these two teams and Buffalo’s biggest weakness of late has been against the run, allowing Miami’s Raheem Mostert to go for 136 yards on just 17 carries three games ago. 

On the Buffalo side, Josh Allen was extremely efficient in his last start against the Patriots, passing for a clean 223 yards and two TDs on 33 attempts. His early career struggles against the Patriots have now subsided to the point where he’s posted passer ratings well above 100.0 against them in three of his past four games. 

The Patriots do rank  second in defensive pass DVOA, but some of their recent effectiveness in that area has been helped by match-ups against the second- and third-string quarterbacks for the Jets, Colts, Dolphins, and Cardinals. New England’s secondary is only one week removed from being eviscerated by Joe Burrow, who threw for a 76% completion rate and 375 yards on 52 pass attempts in Week 16. Don’t be shocked if we see a hyper-focused Allen have his way in similar fashion this week. 

The props for this game have understandably been late to come up on several sportsbooks and there’s lots of factors that make projecting this game tough. Taking a small bet with the Bills to cover the spread is a reasonable venture, however. Buffalo projects out as the far superior team with several quality wins on the year. 

The Patriots were beaten soundly in the first match-up and their recent defensive stats have been inflated by facing poor quarterbacks. Look for the Bills to win out this week in what will certainly be an emotional match-up at Highmark Stadium.