Patriots (-1.5) at Cardinals – 43.5 total 

Maybe the Patriots will listen to Mac Jones and switch up their passing game. Since resuming the starting job, Jones is 26th in play-action rate and 30th in air yards per attempt. Plus, he’s 25th in deep-ball rate despite having a league-average success rate on downfield throws. Simply put, his aggression isn’t a liability. However, he might not have the time to look far on Sunday.

Arizona is 28th in dropback success rate allowed and has given up the ninth-most passing yards per game this season. However, they’ve used their defensive front to cover up their issues on the backend. They’re sixth in pass rush win rate with the third-highest blitz rate. But even if they get in Jones’s face, he’s got options nearby.

Rhamondre Stevenson leads the team in targets with Jones under center. Sure, we love volume, but efficiency indicates future usage. Luckily, Stevenson has this too. He’s first among all New England pass-catchers in YPRR at 1.79. Jones may want to showcase his arm more, but Stevenson and Jakobi Meyers will again be staples of the passing game.

On the flip side, Kyler Murray has a shot at making more highlight-reel plays against the Patriots. Dual-threat passers have averaged 69.7 yards against New England. Lamar Jackson smoked them for 107 yards and a score in Week 3, while we watched Justin Fields ascend in primetime seven weeks ago. After missing two games, Murray had a 57.1% designed run rate in his first game back. He’s had the bye week to recharge and should be gliding across the field on Sunday. The only problem will be figuring out who his best passing option will be.

Primary WRs from competent offenses have given the Patriots fits; Stefon Diggs (9-91-1) and Justin Jefferson (11-139-1) are the latest examples. DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t had week-winning results over the last month, but still leads the team in targets (63) and red-zone looks (5). Given Kliff Kingsbury’s bright idea to move Hopkins into the slot on top of his perimeter usage (20.6% slot rate), Hopkins is in a prime spot on Sunday.