New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys' bandwagon hit a bit of a speed bump last week. It started by losing Trevon Diggs to a season-ending injury, but they were still favored by double digits on the road at Arizona. Unfortunately, no one told the Cardinals that they were supposed to roll over and die. Arizona not only covered, but they won the game outright, dropping Dallas to 2-1 on the year.

Despite this hiccup in Week 3, though, the Cowboys still boast outstanding metrics, currently ranking third in scoring differential and sixth in yardage differential.

Dallas also currently ranks seventh in EPA per play on offense and third in EPA per play allowed on defense. The Bills and 49ers are the only other teams that currently rank top-seven in both categories, with the Chiefs narrowly missing out on the offensive side. In other words, the Cowboys are still a really good football team in spite of the embarrassing upset by the Cardinals.

Sep 10, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Dallas Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs (7) forces a fumble by New York Giants wide receiver Isaiah Hodgins (18) during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

The absence of Diggs will hurt for the rest of the season, but Dallas's offensive line should get some much needed reinforcements in Week 4. The team was without Zack Martin and Tyler Biadasz against the Cardinals, and Tyron Smith was active but didn’t play. There’s a chance that all three linemen return to the starting lineup this week against the Patriots, which would give Dallas a big advantage in the trenches.

The Cowboys should also be focused after an uncharacteristic showing. They failed to cover the spread by more than three TDs against the Cardinals, and teams coming off a massive ATS loss have historically bounced back the following week. In those scenarios, teams are 319-265-1 ATS dating back to 2005, and they’re 44-33-1 ATS when favored by at least 6.5 points, as Dallas is this week.

Meanwhile, the Patriots continue to struggle along. They managed to pick up their first win of the season on Sunday, but they scored just 15 points against the Jets. New England's defense looked far better than it did in the first two weeks, but you don't get that much credit for stopping Zach Wilson.

The Patriots’ defense was expected to be a solid unit this season, and they do rank 11th in EPA allowed per play defensively. That’s more than good enough to win games, but the offense hasn't improved much from 2022 despite having brought back Bill O’Brien to right the ship. Even with O'Brien calling plays instead of Matt Patricia, though, New England's offense hasn't scored much in the first three games.

Sep 24, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) runs for a few against the Jets at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Rhamondre Stevenson has taken a massive step backwards, averaging 2.1 fewer yards per attempt than he did last season. Ezekiel Elliott has been slightly more effective as a runner, but overall, the Patriots rank just 21st in EPA per rushing attempt thus far.

Things aren’t much better in the passing game either. Mac Jones is averaging fewer adjusted yards per attempt than he did last season, and he ranks just 21st out of 34 QBs in EPA + CPOE composite.

Add it all up, and the Patriots are just…boring. They’re not good, but they’re not particularly bad, either. New England is kind of there post-Tom Brady, occupying a spot on our televisions 17 times a year.

The Cowboys are currently listed as seven-point favorites across most sportsbooks, but there have been some rogue 6.5s out there. I advise grabbing Dallas -6.5 if you happen to see it.

I’ve already locked in Cowboys -6.5 in the Bet Tracker. I fully expect them to bounce back in this matchup, and the Patriots haven’t shown the ability to score enough points to keep up with good teams.