New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

If you had asked me about this game three weeks ago, I’d have projected Miami for 30 points. 

Two weeks ago? 50.

But after last week, their Vegas implied total of 28.5 feels fair. Actually, not just fair, but necessary, too. 

New England’s offense showed some life in Week 7 to get Bill Belichick his 300th regular-season win. Mac Jones had his first multi-touchdown game without an interception since last season. And the Patriots’ backfield did just enough to keep the offense moving and upset the Bills. 

But Jones doesn’t have an alpha receiver like A.J. Brown to beat coverage consistently. Or a TE like Dallas Goedert to take a screen pass to the end zone. Regardless, the Dolphins’ defense has shown enough cracks that we may see another viable performance in week 8.

Luckily, we’re not looking to many of the Patriots’ pass-catchers for fantasy production. Kendrick Bourne is the only WR who has finished as a top-12 WR this year. But not in the way we expected to see after his early-season usage.

Oct 22, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Kendrick Bourne (84) crosses the goalie for a touchdown during the second half against the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Bourne averaged 13.9 air yards per target through the first month of the season. After having a 10.6 aDOT last season, Bourne leading the team in downfield looks made sense. And when Jones connected with Bourne, he’d wind up at the top of the ranks. However, we can’t rely on those results each week. But since then, Bourne’s role has changed:

• Air Yards per Target: 13.9 (Weeks 1-4), 6.6 (Weeks 5-7)
• Slot Rate: 20.7%, 25.0%
• Target Share: 18.4%, 25.0%

Bourne has become an all-around player for New England, with five or more targets in three straight games. While it’s lowered his ceiling, as there’s not much passing volume to go around, we can use a steady floor of targets for our WR spots in PPR settings. And the same idea would work for the NE RBs, too, if we only had one to worry about. 

Week 7 was emblematic of Rhamondre Stevenson’s usage and “just enough” fantasy points to keep us hoping for more. Despite Ezekiel Elliott getting all four green-zone touches, and scoring on one of them, Stevenson’s six snags for 51 yards (11.1 PPR points as a receiver alone!) kept him in the RB2 conversation. And against Miami’s run defense, ranked 26th in run stop win rate, Stevenson should at least have the volume to return to the top 24 in Week 8.

On Miami’s side, let’s hope Mike McDaniel has another wrinkle for the Dolphins’ offense to keep Tua Tagovailoa pushing the ball downfield. Tua has faced pressure on over 30.0% of his dropbacks in three games. In Week 1 (30.4% pressure rate), he had Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to ward off defenders. Against the Bills, Waddle was in his first game back from injury. And on Sunday, Waddle left part of the game because of a back injury.

Jaylen’s absence has brought Cedrick Wilson and Braxton Berrios into football relevance, as both have converted key third downs or found their way into the end zone. But if Waddle can get right by Sunday, his peripherals indicate he’s ready for a breakout performance.

Now, compared to his current stats, getting over 100 yards and finding the end zone would be a top-percentile outcome for the third-year WR. And while Hill was a target vacuum (46.9% share), Waddle’s 37.5% TPRR reinforced the idea he’s the WR2 when available. And he was used farther downfield than Hill on a per-target basis, giving him the runway for big gains when Tua gets him the ball.