New England Patriots at New York Jets

We have an AFC East showdown on tap in Week 3, with the Patriots traveling to New York to take on the Jets. It’s safe to say that neither of these teams has gotten off to the start they were hoping for in 2022.

The Patriots are 0-2 after two one-possession losses, while the Jets were dismantled 30-10 by the Cowboys in Week 2.

The Jets have been arguably the biggest talking point in the NFL this season. They brought in a future first-ballot Hall of Famer in Aaron Rodgers. They boast the reigning Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year. They were on Hard Knocks.

In short – the Jets were entering the most anticipated season in the history of the franchise.

That all changed early in the first quarter of their first contest. Rodgers went down with an Achilles injury, which means their hopes now lie in the hands of Zach Wilson.

Wilson has plenty of starting experience, but he was expected to serve as Rodgers’ mentee over the next few seasons before getting another crack at the starting job.

Jan 9, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson (2) throws a pass in the third quarter game against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

He was thrown into the fire in Week 1, and somehow, the team managed to secure the win over the Bills. Wilson was not responsible for the win, but he also didn’t actively sabotage the team like he’d done in previous seasons.

Unfortunately, Week 2 was a different story.

The team did their best to try to mitigate Wilson’s opportunities vs. the Cowboys. He attempted just 17 passes, with the team instead choosing to lean on the run game. Unfortunately, their defense didn’t hold up, which put the Jets into comeback mode in the second half.

That’s when the wheels came off for Wilson. He finished with three interceptions, all of which came in the fourth quarter.

That’s going to be the Jets’ formula for the rest of the season: rely on the defense, run the ball on offense, and hope Wilson doesn’t shoot the team in the foot.

That type of strategy isn’t going to work against teams like the Cowboys, but it can still keep the Jets competitive against lesser competition.

The question is, do the Patriots qualify as lesser competition?

Based purely on their results, the answer appears to be yes. They’re 0-2, and they rank 24th in scoring differential through the first two weeks.

However, those numbers don’t tell the full story.

The Patriots have been competitive in both of their games, which have come against good teams in the Eagles and Dolphins. They actually outgained the Eagles by 131 yards in Week 1, but they were done in by two turnovers and three turnovers on downs.

They couldn’t quite keep pace with the Dolphins, but they still had the ball in Miami territory late in the fourth quarter to potentially score a game-tying touchdown.

Overall, the Patriots rank 15th in yardage differential, which paints a more optimistic picture than their 0-2 record.

Feb 6, 2022; Paradise, Nevada, USA; AFC quarterback Mac Jones of the New England Patriots (10) looks to pass the ball against the NFC during the third quarter during the Pro Bowl football game at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Mac Jones has put up solid raw stats through the first two weeks, completing 68.8% of his passes for 547 yards and four touchdowns. However, he’s needed tons of volume to get there. He leads the league with 96 attempts through the first two weeks, good for an average of 5.6 adjusted yards per attempt.

Not only is that not an improvement from last year, it’s the worst mark of his career.

Jones also ranks 19th at the position in EPA + CPOE composite. That puts him just slightly ahead of Desmond Ridder and Joshua Dobbs, which is not the company he was looking for.

He’ll face a stiff test vs. the Jets in Week 3. The Jets' defense was beaten up by the Cowboys in Week 2, but they looked like a juggernaut against the Bills. They forced Josh Allen into four turnovers while limiting the Bills to 314 yards of total offense.

The Bills bounced back with 450 yards and 38 points vs. the Raiders in Week 2, so they’re still a very good unit. The fact that the Jets were able to shut them down does not bode well for a New England offense that has struggled through two weeks.

Both of these teams fit some solid trends entering Week 3. The Patriots are 0-2 both straight up and against the spread, and those teams tend to fare really well in Week 3. They’re 56-37 in that spot dating back to 2005, good for a +17.4% return on investment.

However, the Jets are coming off a 20-point loss last week, and teams typically become undervalued following a blowout loss. Teams off a loss of at least 20 points have posted a 321-232-12 ATS record when getting at least three points the following week. The return on investment of +12.0% isn’t quite as good as the Patriots, but it’s over a significantly larger sample.

The public unsurprisingly wants nothing to do with the Wilson, and 75% of the early spread bets are siding with New England (via the Action Network). However, the has been some sharp action on the Jets at +3.0, which has caused this number to dip back to 2.5 at some locations.

The one thing that everyone agrees on is the total. Points should be at a premium in this matchup, and this number has already dipped a full 1.5 points after opening at 38.5.

Personally, I think the Jets are the correct side as long as you’re getting a full field goal. Their defense still has the potential to win them a lot of games, and Wilson shouldn’t be asked to do much in this matchup.