Patriots at Raiders (+1) – 44.5 total

New England may have caught a break last week when Kyler Murray went down on his first drive of the game with an ACL tear, but full credit to them for taking advantage and cruising to the 27-13 win. The win pushed the Patriots into the final playoff position, as they currently hold tiebreakers over the Chargers and the Jets who are also at 7-6. 

On the opposite end of the spectrum is the Raiders, who blew their game against the Rams, choosing to pass up a 4th and 1 conversion opportunity late in the game (which would have iced the game had they converted) while holding a six point lead. We all know what happened next, as the Raiders punted and then allowed freshly signed Baker Mayfield, who was not even on the team three days prior, to waltz down the field for a 98-yard game winning TD. 

The Raiders were banged up in the secondary last week, which at least accounted for some of their issues, and they may still be without right corner Rock Ya-Sin for Week 15, who wasn’t practicing early this week. Las Vegas ranks dead last in defensive pass DVOA and is averaging under 2.0 sacks per game on the season. Mac Jones’ sideline antics have been well documented over the last two games, but he would not be wrong in asking the Patriots’ bosses to attack more downfield this week. The weaker pass rush and the fact that Jones may also have Jakobi Meyers back for this week should lead to a few more downfield completions.

Meyers will be in a great spot against this Raiders secondary, but also don’t be shocked if you see Hunter Henry perk up with a couple of long completions and potentially even a long TD catch. Henry really came on towards the end of last season and has averaged 18.44 yards per catch over his last three starts. With Jones lacking a true cannon, Henry’s routes down the seam have been the most effective big-play option for the Patriots in many respects and Vegas has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the TE position this year. 

This game could prove to be a bit of a back-and-forth battle as well. As banged up and ineffective as the Raiders are on defense, they’re not at all to be trifled with on the offensive side. Josh Jacobs had his lowest output game in over a month against the Rams, but he still put up 99 rush yards and a TD in the game. The Patriots have been solid in stopping the run for most of the season, but they’re hardly impenetrable. New England ceded 5.66 YPC last week to James Conner and the Raiders are a far more formidable offensive opponent, as they’ve averaged 5.6 YPC over the last three weeks, which is second highest in the league.

Jacobs’ health will be a big issue to watch as we head into game time, although it should be noted that he’s been resting early in the week for a couple of games now and doesn’t sound like he’s suffered any kind of setbacks. New England has RB injury concerns of their own after Rhamondre Stevenson left last week’s game with an ankle injury. He missed practice early this week and looks to be headed towards a legit questionable tag and potentially even a gametime decision. WRs Jakobi Meyers and DeVante Parker are both suffering from concussions, although Meyers looks set to potentially return this week after he took part in the first practice of the week for New England, even though it was in a limited capacity. 

The Patriots have a deep roster at the RB and WR positions, so losing Stevenson and Parker, while unfortunate, isn’t something they should struggle with overcoming. As much as it hurts to say, I expect the Raiders to bounce back this week and for both New England and Las Vegas to put up points. There’s lots of injury notes to watch for in this game, but Vegas should have Jacobs available (outside of a major setback) and they are 3-1-1 at hitting overs on game totals when at home this year. Look for that record to improve further this week and for these teams to play in a close higher-scoring affair this Sunday.