Patriots @ Steelers

What will the Patriots do for an encore? The last three weeks this team has held their opposition to under 10 points and STILL managed to lose all three of those games. That hasn’t happened since 1938 when throwing the ball more than five yards through the air was still considered revolutionary. 

But wait, it gets better. Not only will the Patriots face the Steelers in Week 14, who rank 28th in points per game, but they will face the Steelers led by their backup quarterback, Mitch Trubisky. Yes, it’s Mitch-a-palooza this Thursday night as Trubisky will attempt to reinvigorate this offense after going 11 for 17 with 117 yards and a TD in relief work against the Cardinals. 

Speaking of the Cardinals, they exposed the Steelers' rush defense, gaining 155 yards on the ground against Pittsburgh, and only needed to pass the ball 23 times in the lopsided win. Pittsburgh really missed inside LB Elandon Roberts against Arizona, who left early from that game with an injury, and he’s questionable to play this Thursday night. Overall, the Steelers are 21st in yards per carry against but do rank out top 10 in success rate and EPA vs the run. 

If Roberts sits, it would be good news for New England. The Patriots are 8th in success rate when rushing the ball, so they may be able to replicate some of the success Arizona had last week. The Patriots will almost certainly be without Rhamondre Stevenson (high ankle sprain) this week, which means Pittsburgh will see tons of Ezekiel Elliott, who is averaging just 3.8 yards per rush but could be in a good spot to produce this Thursday—and will certainly see a high volume of snaps and touches. 

Given the state of the rest of their offense, the Patriots will likely need a big game from Elliott. QB Bailey Zappe (141-0-0, 4-16) looks set to start again this week but could only manage a 52% completion rate and a 5.6 yards per attempt metric against one of the worst secondaries in the league last week in the Chargers. 

The Steelers aren’t much better in coverage, but they did get Minkah Fitzpatrick back last week and are 11th in pressure rate. Zappe was also sacked five times in that Chargers game, and his lack of pocket awareness could get him in trouble this week against Pittsburgh. I don’t spend much time looking at defensive props, but the overs on sacks for Alex Highsmith and TJ Watt will be of interest this week. 

Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson (18) catches a deep pass as Cincinnati Bengals cornerback DJ Turner II (20) defends in the second quarter of a Week 12 NFL football game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Nov. 26, 2023, at Paycor Stadium. Credit: Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

On the Steelers' side of the ball, expect to continue to see an even distribution of snaps between RBs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. Harris has seemingly taken back the lead role duties after rushing the ball 16 times and playing on 59% of the snaps last week, but this is likely a better spot for Warren to succeed. The Patriots are first in success rate against the run but have been a little easier to pass on, and Warren (three receptions or more in four of his last six games) is exceptional when out in space as a receiver. 

Diontae Johnson is another name to watch for Pittsburgh and may be a great over target for receptions and yards on props. While he only managed 33 yards last week, Johnson and Trubisky have combined for some big weeks in the past. Between Weeks 1-3 last year (when Trubisky was the starter) Johnson averaged 7.0 catches and 65.33 yards. 

The total in this game has drifted all the way down to 30.0 at spots after opening at 34.5 or higher. The spread is also down from 6.5-6.0 to 5.0 in many places. Pittsburgh’s ineptitude caught up with them last week, and now, with an injury on defense and a backup QB under center, it feels like they won’t be able to just sleepwalk to a win in this game. 

I am not sure I take the under now that the number has dropped so dramatically, but the Patriots at +5.0 or better certainly warrants consideration. Pittsburgh has just two wins on the season of 6.0 or more points and have scored under 17 points in three of their last five games.