Las Vegas Raiders @ Chicago Bears

We can likely dub this one the “backup bowl.” As of now, it seems likely that both starting QBs will be out for this game. Justin Fields (doubtful - thumb) seems almost certain to miss after he dislocated the thumb on his throwing hand against Minnesota. Head coach Matt Eberflus commented and suggested it will come down to grip strength and that Fields is doubtful as of Monday. 

If Fields can’t go, the Bears will be starting undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent (83-0-1, 2-4-1), who looked overwhelmed at points in his debut last week, committing two bad turnovers down the stretch. Bagent also orchestrated a 77-yard TD drive, and it’s worth nothing that he holds the NCAA record for all-time touchdown passes (159). He played so well in preseason that the Bears were happy enough to keep him on the roster and release veteran backup PJ Walker—who notably led the Browns to a win last week. 

While Bagent will be the main reason anyone tunes into this game, him starting is still not great for the overall prospects of the Bears offense. DJ Moore (5-51) saw his production dip last week and will be hard to rely on for fantasy—likewise for Cole Kmet (2-9). 

The good news for Bagent is that the Raiders are a relatively low pressure team (29th in pressure rate) and haven’t been great at creating turnovers. If the rookie can remain patient, there is a shot he exceeds expectations against a mostly vanilla Raiders defense that ranks just 23rd in overall defensive DVOA.  

The news on the other side of the field is far less certain as Jimmy Garoppolo (questionable) seems like he has a much better chance of potentially playing this week. Garoppolo was taken to the hospital after the Patriots game (back) but was given a relatively clean bill of health. It sounds like it will be a pain issue for Garoppolo, who comes in ranked 11th in EPA per play this year among all QBs. 

It’s also unclear who the Raiders would be starting at QB if Garoppolo sits. Aiden O’Connell started in Week 4 against the Chargers when Garoppolo was hurt and was efficient enough, throwing for 238 yards with one INT. However, he was inactive last week and Brian Hoyer was the one who came in and sealed the win for Las Vegas, throwing for 102 yards on just 10 attempts. The Raiders really have no reason to see more of Hoyer, so O’Connell seems likely to get the call. 

Oct 15, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (8) tries to avoid a tackle from New England Patriots safety Adrian Phillips (21) at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports

Like Bagent, this would be a great spot for O’Connell to excel. The Bears rank 29th in defensive DVOA and are just 27th in pressure rate themselves. They have got some help back, with CBs Jaylen Johnson and Kyler Gordon now healthy, but are 30th in yards per pass attempt against. O’Connell will also have a solid workhorse to rely on in RB Josh Jacobs, who managed 77 yards on 25 rushes last week and has taken 45 attempts over the last two games. 

Jacobs’s efficiency has been awful this year (2.9 YPC), but he’s a reliable receiver (8.4 YPR) who will make life easier for a QB making just his second career start. 

It’s too early to tell, but this would actually be a much more fun game to handicap if (when) we get news that Bagent and O’Connell are starting. While the Raiders are the more solid team—who have been good at grinding out wins against non-elites like the Patriots, Broncos, and Packers—the upside with Bagent against a low pressure defense is somewhat intriguing. 

The spread, which opened at 1.0, has moved to -3.0 now in favor of the Raiders and may still be worth playing for a Las Vegas cover (they are 7-4 ATS at home under Josh McDaniels) at that number. However, the total, which has moved all the way down to 37.5, is worth keeping an eye on as well. As bad as the offenses sound, these are two bottom 10 defenses in DVOA ratings and certainly capable of allowing bigger plays. Both O’Connell and Bagent were decent enough in preseason, and if they start, the possibility of defensive scores would go up as well. 

Watch the news (and the line movement) but keep this one in mind for a potential over/Raiders play later in the week.