Las Vegas Raiders @ Buffalo Bills

These squads started the 2023 season on different notes.

The Raiders managed to secure a road victory despite taking the field as underdogs, while the Bills failed to win as road favorites.

The Bills are still one of the favorites in the AFC, but it wasn’t exactly the start that the squad was hoping for.

There wouldn’t have been any shame in losing on the road vs. the Jets, but the injury to Aaron Rodgers changed things. All of a sudden, the Bills went from facing a four-time MVP at quarterback to one of the worst QBs in the league in Zach Wilson.

The Bills had a 10-point halftime lead against a team that was really struggling to move the football, so they just had to avoid making too many mistakes in the second half.

Apparently, Josh Allen did not get the memo.

Turnovers were a huge issue for Allen in 2022. The Bills averaged 1.7 giveaways per game last season, which was the second-highest mark in the league. Only the Colts and Texans were worse in that department, and they had two of the worst offenses in football.

The Bills still had a ton of offensive success – they were second in points and yards per game – but too many of their drives ended prematurely.

Allen’s turnovers were directly responsible for the Bills’ loss in Week 1. He threw three interceptions, all to Jordan Whitehead, and added a fumble late in the fourth quarter.

The Jets’ lone offensive touchdown came on a drive starting at their own 43 yard line, and they kicked a go-ahead field goal on a drive starting at the Bills 27.

If Buffalo didn’t gift the Jets good starting field position on those drives, it’s unlikely Wilson would’ve been able to muster enough offense to complete the comeback.

Sep 11, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) fumbles the ball and the Jets recovered in the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Allen’s struggles vs. the Jets are nothing new. He had two interceptions against Gang Green in 2022, and they limited him to 4.62 adjusted yards per attempt in their two meetings. That was his worst mark against any opponent.

The good news is that things should be significantly easier for Allen in Week 2.

The Raiders’ defense ranked 29th in passing yards per game allowed in 2022, and they’re not expected to be much better this season.

Matthew Freedman has their defense ranked 30th in his Unit Rankings, with their secondary specifically ranking 30th as well.

On the other side, the Raiders got off to a solid start in the Jimmy Garoppolo era.

Garoppolo’s numbers from previous years are clearly inflated by playing in a Kyle Shanahan offense with tons of supporting talent, but he provided some optimism in his first start with the Raiders. He completed 20 of 26 passes for 200 yards, adding two touchdowns and one interception.

The result was 7.5 adjusted yards per attempt, which ranked tied for ninth at the position in Week 1. The Broncos’ secondary also ranked second in Freedman’s unit rankings, so it was a solid performance, all things considered.

Garoppolo’s performance earned the Raiders a cover as underdogs, something that he has been elite at throughout his career. He’s now a ridiculous 15-4 ATS as an underdog, rewarding bettors with a +54.4% return on investment.

Among active quarterbacks with at least nine starts as a dog, only Lamar Jackson (10-1 ATS) and Patrick Mahomes (7-1-1 ATS) have rewarded bettors with a better ROI than Garoppolo.

That said, it appears as though the sharps do not believe in Jimmy Covers. The early action in this matchup has skewed heavily towards the Bills. The Bills have received 90% of the spread dollars on just 44% of the bets, which has driven this line as high as Bills -9.5 at certain locations.

Like most good quarterbacks, Allen has a strong track record of bouncing back after a loss. He’s 12-9-2 ATS following a defeat, so expect him to play better than he did vs. the Jets. It’s certainly a significantly easier matchup, so the Bills’ offense should be able to right the ship.

Freedman has already made his case for taking the Bills on our Early Week 2 Betting Preview:

The Raiders managed just 261 yards of total offense in their win over the Broncos. If they don’t play better vs. the Bills – and Allen can avoid the sloppy turnovers – this game shouldn’t be particularly close.