Betting Overview

• Projected Total: 44 (-110, BetMGM)
• Spread: Broncos -4 (-115, BetMGM)

Game Analysis

If this was midseason, a matchup between the Raiders and Broncos wouldn’t generate much interest. Despite the intradivisional rivalry, Vegas doesn’t have either team reaching nine wins. And neither QB is being drafted higher than QB16. But it’s Week 1, and we can learn a bit from both squads for future roster moves.

So, fantasy managers, let’s ride.

At first glance, the Raiders look like the Patriots West. Josh McDaniels reunites with Jimmy Garoppolo, Jakobi Meyers, and Brandon Bolden in Vegas to try and turn the franchise around after a 6-11 record in ’22.

Having to play the Chargers and Chiefs twice makes it all the more challenging. But Davante Adams could be their equalizer.

Adams turns 31 in December, and he’s aged like fine wine. He ranked third in targets per route run amongst all receivers at 11.8 air yards per target (11th). At 30 years old, Adams had a higher YAC per reception (4.93) than 23-year-old Justin Jefferson (4.87).

After generating the sixth-most first downs last season, it’ll be hard for Meyers or Hunter Renfrow to take looks away from the three-time All-Pro WR. And for folks worried about the Broncos’ secondary, let’s look back at 2022 as a reference.

Davante Adams averaged (repeat, averaged) 121 yards on 26 targets against Denver last year. He was the overall WR1 the second time he faced them. However, Adams did most of his damage from the interior.

He had a 30.0% slot rate, and WRs with similar roles found success against Denver throughout the year (Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, 7-119-2; Keenan Allen, 10-87-2). 

Drafters may see this as an opportunity to fire up Hunter Renfrow, but the only correlation is where he runs his routes. But Jakobi Meyers has both the inside route-running ability and body type (6’2”, 200 lbs) to take advantage of Denver’s coverage. And if their aerial attack needs more time to gel, the Raiders’ rushing game may be able to pick up the slack.

Jan 7, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (28) runs the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs during the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

After leading the league in rushing yards, Josh Jacobs is back in Las Vegas with a new deal. Denver was top 12 in run-stop win rate and rush success rate allowed. But Jacobs didn’t care about the stats. Jacobs was the RB2 and RB7 against the Broncos, and not much has changed about his situation. Despite positive news about Zamir White, Jacobs will take most of the touches (80.4% in 2022), giving him RB1 appeal despite a drama-filled offseason.

For Denver, a passing game that already had questions surrounding it at the start of the offseason has even more heading into the regular season. Jerry Jeudy avoided short-term IR, but his Week 1 status remains uncertain. So, let’s assess the Broncos’ healthy receivers.

After lagging behind Jeudy in ADP by multiple rounds, Courtland Sutton enters 2023 as the unquestioned WR1. And by all accounts, he’s acting like it.

He led the Broncos in targets but found himself sandwiched between Brandin Cooks (1.72 YPRR) and Olamide Zaccheaus (1.68) at 1.71 YPRR. Luckily, Sutton was able to get up for a game against his divisional rival in ’22.

The SMU product posted stat lines of 7-52-1 and 7-80-0 against the Raiders last season. Las Vegas ranked bottom 5 in dropback EPA and success rate allowed in 2022, and the team prioritized their defensive front during the draft.

It’s hard to expect a high passing rate from Russell Wilson, so Sutton falls into the low-end WR2 discussion unless the Raiders force a shootout.

Wilson will also have rookie Marvin Mims opposite Sutton to consider.

Mims fell into Tier 2 in our Rookie Super Model and averaged 45.8% of his snaps from the slot. Functioning as the Z-reciever would be an ideal start for Mims who posted a 72.2% success rate against man coverage in college.

Given his quick rise up the depth chart and mid-round ADP, managers can wait and see how Mims integrates into the offense, but seeing Javonte Williams on the field is one thing we all can’t wait on for Week 1.

Unfortunately, it’s clear the Broncos don’t want to put Williams into a bellcow role. Melvin Gordon played alongside Williams for two seasons and Denver added Samaje Perine in free agency. But it doesn’t mean he can’t take the job at some point during the season.

Before tearing his ACL in Week 4, Williams was top 10 in yards after contact per attempt and total explosive runs. Perine gives HC Sean Payton a simple solution to easing Williams back into action, but Williams has other paths to being a high-end fantasy asset.

Williams had a 17.8% target share through four weeks. Admittedly, a 12-target outing in Week 1 buoys his share. However, Jeudy’s absence lends credence to the idea Williams (and Perine) could be a viable RB2 to open the season.

And, once he’s back up to speed, he can push for more work later in the year.