Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins

The Raiders will travel to Miami to take on the Dolphins in a battle between two playoff hopefuls this Sunday.

Miami has solidified their status as the clear top team in the AFC East through 10 weeks. The Bills, Jets, and Patriots have massively disappointed compared to preseason expectations, which has allowed the Dolphins to soar to the top of the standings. They’re currently 6-3, giving them a two-game edge over their nearest competitors in the loss column.

Las Vegas has been the bigger surprise, though. They made the decision to fire head coach Josh McDaniels and bench Jimmy Garoppolo, so most thought that their season was over. However, the Raiders won their past two games under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, keeping them in playoff contention at 5-5. Granted, these last two wins came against the Giants and Jets, but their record currently has them just half a game behind the Texans for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC.

Of course, the Dolphins are a huge step up in competition from the Giants and Jets. While the Raiders' defense has looked strong against Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson the past two weeks, stopping Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel will be a completely different story. Miami leads the league in yards and points per game thus far in 2023, and they currently rank second in EPA per play.

The Dolphins’ offense could also be getting some reinforcements on Sunday in the form of De’Von Achane. The electric rookie RB had his 21-day practice window opened, so it’s possible that Achane will return to the lineup this week coming off the bye.

Oct 15, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane (28) runs with the football against Carolina Panthers safety Matthias Farley (41) during the fourth quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Achane was one of the most productive players in the league before landing on IR, averaging a ridiculous 12.1 yards per attempt on 38 carries. It goes without saying that would be the top mark in the league if he had enough carries to qualify.

Miami also has the potential to improve defensively over the second half of the year. Star cornerback Jalen Ramsey has suited up in the past two contests, and the team has allowed just 38 total points in those matchups. That includes a game against the Chiefs, and while Kansas City isn’t quite as explosive offensively this season as they have been in recent years, it was still an impressive showing for the Dolphins' defense.

Xavien Howard also returned to the lineup against the Chiefs, giving the Dolphins an outstanding cornerback duo on paper, and they have two premier safeties in Jevon Holland and DeShon Elliott as well as two excellent pass-rushers in Andrew Van Ginkel and Bradley Chubb.

Nov 5, 2023; Frankfurt, Germany; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) carries the ball against Miami Dolphins cornerback Jalen Ramsey (5) in the second half during an NFL International Series game at Deutsche Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

With a lot of talent on defense, Miami could develop into an outstanding pass defense over the second half of the year. When combined with their explosive offense, which should give the defense plenty of leads to defend, the Dolphins are legit Super Bowl contenders.

Their one weakness has been against the run, and Pierce hasn't been shy about running the ball since having taken the reins in Las Vegas. Josh Jacobs has run the ball 53 times the past two games, so expect another heavy dose of Jacobs in Miami this week.

Finally, the Dolphins have a clear edge from a rest perspective. While they’re coming off the bye, the Raiders will have to travel across the country after having played last Sunday night. The West Coast to East Coast travel isn’t nearly as big of a deal as it has been in the past, but playing a more talented team with a rest advantage is tough. Underdogs are just 133-172-9 ATS when facing a team with at least 14 days of rest between games since 2005.

This number is up to Dolphins -12.0 after having opened at around 10 points at most sportsbooks, but I think that Miami is still clearly the right side. Their offense has struggled as of late, but I think that the potential return of Achane would be a huge boost. The Dolphins' defense should also be better than they were early in the season with a healthy Ramsey and Howard both back. Even with a pretty big 12-point spread, the Raiders might still be a smidge overvalued coming off back-to-back wins against bad teams.