Las Vegas Raiders @ Detroit Lions

The Raiders will travel to the Motor City to take on the Lions in Week 8, and both teams will be looking to bounce back after disappointing performances in Week 7.

Detroit entered last week at 5-1, tied with the Eagles and 49ers for the best record in the NFC, and people were definitely giving them their flowers. However, the Lions suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of the Ravens, losing by a whopping 32 points.

There’s certainly no shame in losing to a strong team like Baltimore, but losing in that fashion was a bit concerning. Detroit's offense managed just six total points while their defense surrendered more than 500 total yards. The Lions entered that contest with a top-five unit on offense and a top-10 defense in most metrics, so it was a complete letdown on both sides of the ball.

Still, it was just one game, and Detroit's overall body of work thus far in 2023 remains impressive. They’re still fourth in the league in yards per game and ninth in EPA per play. The Lions also currently rank 15th in EPA allowed per play defensively, so this is a solid team.

Oct 15, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (10) is tackled by New England Patriots linebacker Anfernee Jennings (33) in the second quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports

The same cannot be said for the Raiders. Las Vegas does get a bit of slack for having starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo out last week. Still, I don’t care who's under center. You need to score more than 12 points against the Bears' defense, period.

The bigger problem was on defense in that loss. The Raiders were squaring off with undrafted rookie QB Tyson Bagent, who was making his first career NFL start. Bagent was a preseason standout after excelling in Division II in college, but it was still the type of matchup that should’ve had Maxx Crosby & Co. licking their chops. Instead, they surrendered 30 points to the undrafted rookie QB.

That loss dropped Las Vegas to 3-4 for the year, and while that’s not a terrible record, they’ve clearly been a bit fortunate. Their expected record sits at just 2.1-4.9 based off their point differential, and the Raiders rank 23rd or worse in both offensive and defensive EPA per play.

It’s currently unclear whether Garoppolo will be able to return for this matchup at Detroit. The team is cautiously optimistic about his status, and the fact that this game is on Monday gives Garoppolo an extra day to rest up. Garoppolo may not be a world-beater, but he’s clearly an upgrade over Brian Hoyer and Aidan O’Connell.

Oct 22, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) is tackled by Detroit Lions defensive lineman Aidan Hutchinson (97) during the first quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Still, I’m not sure that it'll matter who's under center against the Lions on Monday night. Las Vegas is catching Detroit at the wrong time after last week’s humbling defeat. Historically, teams with a winning record are 42-30-3 ATS following a defeat of at least 28 points dating back to 2005. That also includes a 3-0 mark so far this season.

Dan Campbell is also a motivational master, so expect him to have his team fired up. The Lions are 28-13 against the spread overall under Campbell, making them one of the best ATS teams in the league. It’s hard to imagine them not being 100% focused after a loss he described as “probably needed.”

This line has already increased from Lions -7.5 to 8.5, and I don’t foresee a ton of resistance from the Raiders in the betting market. If you like Detroit in this spot, your best bet is probably to lock them in ASAP.