Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals

The second of two Monday Night Football contests in Week 3 pits arguably the two biggest surprises of the early season against each other.

The Rams have surprised in the best way possible, beating the Seahawks and losing a competitive contest to the 49ers, while the Bengals have been a disaster.

Let’s start with the bad news. There have been virtually no positives to take away from Cincinnati to start the year. 

They were blown out on the road in Week 1, albeit in a game with subpar weather conditions. Their offense looked anemic against the Browns, but it was reasonable to write that performance off as a fluke.

The Browns have an excellent defense, and Joe Burrow missed most of training camp with an injury. Add in some crappy weather, and it’s not a huge surprise that they couldn’t move the ball.

Jan 29, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) reacts after a play against the Kansas City Chiefs during the third quarter of the AFC Championship game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Their Week 2 performance vs. the Ravens was much more concerning.

The Ravens were down a host of starters on the defensive side, but Cincinnati still couldn’t find a way to put points on the scoreboard.

After failing to find the end zone vs. the Browns, their only touchdown in the first half vs. the Ravens came via a punt return.

They finally managed to put one in the end zone in the third quarter, but by that point, it was too late. The Ravens answered immediately with a score of their own, and they ultimately held on for a three-point win as road underdogs.

Overall, the team managed just 282 yards of total offense, which was only 14 more than the Texans mustered against this same unit in Week 1.

The Bengals now sit at 0-2 for the season – both straight up and against the spread. That’s not exactly a death sentence – they were also 0-2 in 2022 before finishing 12-4 – but the offense hasn’t looked nearly as crisp as it did in previous years with Burrow.

Making matters worse, Burrow reportedly re-aggravated his calf injury against Baltimore.

There has been some optimism surrounding Burrow’s availability in recent days, but it’s still far from a guarantee that he suits up vs. the Rams.

Burrow’s status has had a massive impact on the spread. This number opened at Bengals -6.5 on Sunday evening, but it’s all the way down to Bengals -2.5.

The Rams have received the vast majority of the bets and dollars in this spot (per the Action Network), so the sharps clearly wanted to get some Rams exposure while the number was high.

This situation feels very similar to the Eagles matchup vs. the Cowboys in Week 16 of last season.

The sharps initially hammered the Cowboys on the news that Jalen Hurts was dealing with an injury, and they eventually ended up buying back on the Eagles once the number came down.

It wouldn’t shock me if something similar happens this week, especially since it seems like Burrow has a greater chance of suiting up than Hurts did last year. In other words, this line could start to creep back in the Bengals’ favor over the next few days.

As for the Rams, they’re a perfect 2-0 ATS to start the year, albeit with one very interesting cover.

Even without Cooper Kupp, the Rams’ offense has looked dynamic to start the year. Matthew Stafford is healthy, and he’s making the most of the weapons he has available. Puka Nucua is doing things that no rookie has done in NFL history, while Tutu Atwell has made strikes in his third professional season.

Sep 17, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Tutu Atwell (5) reacts after catching a pass against the San Francisco 49ers during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Overall, the Rams offense ranks second in yards per game and ninth in points.

The Bengals' defense isn’t a bad unit, but expect LA to continue to move the ball consistently. If they can score against San Francisco – who absolutely embarrassed the Steelers’ offense in Week 1 – they can do it against anyone.

Ultimately, it’s hard to make a pick on this game without knowing the status of Burrow. I would love to have a Rams +6.5 ticket, but if you didn’t grab them on Sunday night, there’s nothing to do about it now.

If you are going to make a move, I think grabbing the Bengals at -2.5 is probably the best answer.

If Burrow does play, that ticket is going to hold a ton of value. If he doesn’t, you’re not going to miss out on too much.

Since the number is already under 3.0, it doesn’t really matter if the Bengals close at a pick’em; most of those numbers are inconsequential.

You could always play the wait-and-see game, but if you’re looking to take a stand now, that’s the best option from a pure numbers perspective.