Los Angeles Rams @ Indianapolis Colts

This matchup is one of the more underrated ones of the week, in my opinion. The Rams are coming off an underwhelming performance on Monday night in Cincinnati but were one of the hottest offenses in the league over the first two weeks.

On the other side, the Colts got a big win in overtime against the Ravens, with Gardner Minshew leading the offense. They will hopefully get rookie sensation Anthony Richardson back after he missed Week 3 due to a concussion, but the offense should be able to move the ball and put points on the board regardless of who is under center.

Sep 10, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) passes the ball in the second half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Both offenses play with good tempo and currently rank 2nd (Colts) and 14th (Rams) in seconds per play this season. 

Assuming Richardson is back, he will face a surprisingly stingy Rams defense that ranks 15th or better against every position in terms of fantasy points allowed.

However, the Rams have yet to play a QB anywhere near as mobile as Richardson and don’t have the most talented defense out there, so I’m not too concerned about the matchup.

The Colts passing game has been operating through Michael Pittman and Josh Downs, who have combined to see 50% of the team’s targets so far. TE Kylen Granson continues to be a fun leverage play in DFS contests, and that will be the case until Jelani Woods returns to the lineup.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the Indy offense is how productive Zack Moss has been filling in for Jonathan Taylor. After missing Week 1, Moss has dominated the backfield work, seeing 86% of the team rush attempts to go along with a 10% target share. He has cleared 20 PPR points in both games and checks in at the RB11 in Fantasy Life’s consensus rankings for Week 4. 

For the Rams, this game will go a long way to determining how we view the first two weeks. They face a relatively soft Indy defense in a dome, so there are no excuses in this one. Another down week and the narrative will start trending towards the first two weeks being somewhat of a fluke. 

Not to mention that with a 1-2 record and a matchup with the Eagles looming next week, the Rams could find themselves in the basement of the NFC West standings in a hurry if they falter this week.

I’m of the opinion that we will see a bounceback performance against a Colts secondary that has struggled to slow down opposing passing games. 

Stafford managed to put up good numbers against tough defenses the last two weeks and should be able to rack up the yardage again this week. The biggest issue for Stafford’s fantasy value is simply that he hasn’t had many TDs yet, throwing for just two this season.

Per the PFF Expected Points model, he should be closer to the 5 TD mark, which makes him a positive regression candidate once the scores start coming through the air instead of on the ground or via field goals. 

The blistering hot start for Puka Nacua cooled off a bit in Week 3, which opened the door for Tutu Atwell to pace the team with 9 targets. These two should remain the focal point of the passing attack for at least one more week until we see how the offense looks with Cooper Kupp back.

Similar to Nacua, Kyren Williams' production dipped in Week 3, but he remains heavily involved in the offense and is a good bounce-back candidate this week. 

The Colts are 1-point favorites at home, and this game has the fourth-highest game total of the week at 46.5. But there doesn’t seem to be as much buzz for this game as some others. As long as that remains the case, it will be one of my favorite games to stack in DFS contests this week.