Rams at Packers (-7) – 39.5 total

Two of the most disappointing teams in the NFC will square off in Green Bay on Monday night. The Rams’ season is effectively over, with them out of the playoff picture and backups filling a number of key positions. The Packers have slightly more to play for, but have very little margin for error and will likely need to win to be in the playoff conversation.

If you had asked me to predict the Rams Week 15 depth chart a few months ago, I doubt I would have gotten more than one of the skill position players correct. Baker Mayfield will look to continue making his case as the Rams QB of the future after an impressive game-winning drive last week. His receiving corps will be led by Ben Skowronek and Van Jefferson, but neither of them are really on the fantasy radar. Cam Akers appears to have a firm grasp on the lead role in the backfield and is a TD-dependent flex play. 

The Packers will look to continue developing chemistry between Aaron Rodgers and breakout rookie WR Christian Watson, who scored a ridiculous eight TDs in the four games leading up to the Packers’ Week 14 bye. The Rams’ defense has been particularly vulnerable to opposing WRs, so it’s very possible Watson can continue breaking all regression models in this spot and he is a top-20 WR in the Fantasy Life rankings. In the backfield, AJ Dillon had two of his best games of the season in the Packers’ last two matchups, while Aaron Jones continues to be limited in practice. His practice status seems to just be precautionary and he should be ready to roll coming out of the bye, so we have Jones ranked as a low-level RB1 and Dillon as a flex play in this matchup.

The weather could be a factor in this one, with freezing temperatures and a chance of snow in the forecast. This only enhances the Packers’ home field advantage and might be contributing to the spread and low game total. Other than the must-start studs, I would recommend minimizing your exposure to this game as much as possible.