Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers

The Rams and Packers are both seeing their seasons quietly slip away. Both teams are coming off defeats in Week 8, and their once-promising seasons are looking more and more bleak. Los Angeles has fallen to 3-5 after having lost three of their last four games, and Green Bay has now dropped four straight after having won two of their first three games.

The big piece of news to monitor in this matchup involves the health of Matthew Stafford. He injured his throwing hand during last week’s loss to the Cowboys and was replaced by Brett Rypien in the second half.

Stafford is currently considered day-to-day, but with the Rams' bye coming up in Week 10, it's very possible that they could choose to hold him out until Week 11. It sounds like it'll be Rypien under center on Sunday if Stafford is unable to go.

Oct 29, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons (11) attempts to sack Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) in the second quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

That uncertainty is reflected in the betting line. The Rams were listed as one-point favorites on the lookahead line, but the Packers are now listed as three-point favorites. Green Bay has also received most of the early betting activity, including some sharp action, so bettors clearly believe that there's a good chance that Stafford could be out this week or not 100% healthy even if he plays.

Rypien has made three previous starts in his career, and his team has actually gone 2-1 in those outings. Still, his numbers leave a lot to be desired. Rypien has averaged just 3.9 adjusted yards per attempt in those three career starts and threw four TDs and eight INTs in those games, so he would be a clear downgrade for Los Angeles.

Aug 12, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Brett Rypien (11) throws the ball in the first half against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Making matters worse, the Rams will remain without Kyren Williams. He’ll be on IR until Week 12 at the earliest, and he’s been the focal point in a really good rushing attack.

Los Angeles currently ranks fifth in rushing EPA and fourth in rushing success rate, but their run game has been far less potent without Williams in their last game. Their offensive line ranks above-average but just 12th in Pro Football Focus (PFF) run-blocking grade, so the success of their rushing attack thus far in 2023 has largely been more due to Williams than their line play.

Despite all the uncertainty with the Rams, it’s still hard to justify backing the Packers as three-point favorites. They’ve done virtually nothing of late, having lost three straight games to bad Raiders, Broncos, and Vikings squads.

Green Bay's offense has also struggled to move the ball all season. They currently rank just 25th in yards per game and rank outside of the top-20 in both yardage and scoring differential.

Matthew Freedman and I discussed how we’re attacking this game in the Week 9 Early Betting Lines show on Monday.

Personally, grabbing the Rams at +3.0 makes sense to me. There’s still a chance that Stafford could suit up on Sunday, and if that happens, you would get plenty of closing line value (CLV) compared to the current number. I would expect this line to move back near the opening line of Rams -1.0 if Stafford is able to start.

Even if he’s unavailable, Rypien has a chance to keep this game competitive. He has talented WRs in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to lean on in the passing game, and the Packers’ offense hasn’t shown much fight in recent weeks.

Outside of a clear outlier game against Chicago in Week 1, who has one of the worst defenses in football, Green Bay has averaged just 20.4 points per game this year. The Packers' defense isn’t great either, currently ranking just 25th in EPA allowed per play. A stagnant offense and porous defense do not make for a good combination to cover a three-point spread as a favorite.