Rams at Seattle

On some level, both the Rams and Seahawks are ready for the offseason. Injuries have ruined any chances of Los Angeles defending their title, and they’re on their fourth starting QB. The Seahawks have a shot at the postseason, but their injury report looks like a CVS receipt. A 41.5-point total in a divisional rematch doesn’t seem enticing from a fantasy standpoint, but Seattle’s motivation may keep the game competitive.

The Rams’ offense has performed well under Baker Mayfield relative to their mid-season results. They’ve averaged 34.4 yards per drive and are 14th in EPA per play since Mayfield’s comeback win against the Raiders. But their efficiency comes at a cost. Los Angeles is 27th in neutral passing rate on early downs after starting the season in the top 10. So with minimal volume and a different kind of dude throwing the ball, it’s tough to trust the receiving options for LA.

While playing one of the most volatile positions, Tyler Higbee has been one of Mayfield’s most reliable targets. His 0.26 TPRR is first on the team and has the highest end-zone target share (50.0%). Also working in his favor is Seattle’s defense. They’ve been tough on the perimeter but allowed modest days to other TEs (Tyler Conklin 6-80-0, Travis Kelce 8-113-0, and George Kittle 5-93-2). Assuming Seattle can keep the Rams in passing mode, expect Higbee to capitalize on his opportunity.

For the Seahawks, they had a similar test last week and came out on top. The Jets pressured Geno Smith on 34.3% of his dropbacks, but he was still league-average in passing success rate and top 10 in CPOE. However, the interesting part of Seattle’s passing game in Week 17 wasn’t just that Smith was efficient or had a higher throwing rate than the week before. It was who he targeted.

The tight ends (Colby Parkinson and Noah Fant) and DeeJay Dallas accounted for 71.6% of Smith’s passing yards. Tyler Lockett is still nursing a shin injury and looked sluggish on his final play last week, but his teammates stepped up. Los Angeles has ceded short scores to Gerald Everett, Donald Parham, and Greg Dulcich over their previous two games, giving Fant and Parkinson some appeal as DFS dart throws. But Kenneth Walker has the most upside of the skill players.

Dallas’s five targets aside, Walker was still the lead back. He handled 80.0% of the short-yardage and third-down carries and took the rock on every red-zone attempt. Plus, Walker ran one more route than Dallas. The Rams are 27th in rushing EPA allowed over the last three weeks. With the aerial attack ailing, Walker’s explosive ability may save their season.