Rams at Lions 

This could easily be the game of the week. After spending 12 years as the quarterback of the Detroit Lions, Matthew Stafford will now head into Detroit with the intent of knocking them out of the playoffs. His counterpart on the other side? The man the Rams traded away to get Stafford… Jared Goff. 

While Stafford is the one returning to his former home city, it’s Goff that has the bigger bone to pick. The Rams essentially cast him out of L.A., and he was often referred to as an afterthought in that trade, one that included a boatload of other compensation (mainly draft picks). 

Goff may not have a Super Bowl ring, but he has flourished in Detroit under OC Ben Johnson, who has put less pressure on Goff to air out the ball by building out an elite O-line and an offense that ranked 6th in EPA per run in the regular season. Goff ranked ahead of Stafford in EPA per play rankings, but the Rams' starter had a slightly higher yards per attempt metric. The Lions may need Goff to look downfield more in this game as well. 

The Rams have a solid young defensive line that is anchored by Aaron Donald and has been tough to run on this year. The Rams are top 14 in success rate and EPA per rush on defense but just 18th in EPA per dropback and have allowed opposing QBs to throw for over 300 yards against them now in three of their last five games.

Nov 12, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) runs with the ball against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The matchup for Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has scored a TD in four straight games, couldn’t be much sweeter. The Rams have a thin secondary to begin with and enter the playoffs having allowed nine TDs to opposing WRs over their last five games. St. Brown may be hotter than an actual Sun God right now as he’s not only scored at will of late but has also averaged 116 receiving yards over his last four games. 

The Lions may also be without field stretcher Kalif Raymond in this game and also have Jameson Williams (ankle) banged up as well. WR Josh Reynolds may see a higher snap count than usual as a result and could be a sneaky anytime TD bet or alternate line target for props. 

While the matchup is good for the Lions' receivers it may be even better on the Rams' wideouts. Detroit got cooked last week by Justin Jefferson and Nick Mullens, allowing Jefferson to go for 12 catches and 192 yards (and a TD) while Mullens threw for 9.0 yards per attempt and 396 yards total. 

Puka Nacua (fresh off breaking the rookie receiving record) and Cooper Kupp are likely licking their chops over the matchup with this discombobulated Lions secondary, a unit that remains without a true shutdown corner and ranks 25th in success rate vs. the pass. 

This is certainly a game where we could see some video game numbers put up in the final stat line. Both teams play at a faster pace (Detroit is second in plays per game and the Rams are 11th) and both secondaries are poor at defending against explosive plays—and will face elite WRs. 

The over on pass attempts for Jared Goff (33.5) is certainly a play to consider, but you could also look to pair that with an over on St. Brown or Kupp, depending on what the totals and odds are when they drop. As for the game, the Rams do look like the side to be on here. L.A. will be coming into this game better rested and with an experience edge at head coach with Sean McVay that will be tough to overcome. 

As long as the line stays at +3.5 (or gets bigger), I like getting the points with the Rams but would even consider betting them on the money line if the number moves under 3.0.