Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers

We all must’ve been very good boys and girls this year because Santa is leaving us an outstanding gift under the Christmas tree. The Ravens will travel to San Francisco to take on the 49ers in a battle between the two best teams in football.

Baltimore currently stands atop the AFC while the 49ers are the top seed in the NFC, and they also rank as the two top teams in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings. On top of that, San Francisco enters this game riding a six-game win streak while Baltimore has won eight of their last nine. Any way you slice it, this should be a really good game and a potential Super Bowl preview.

Let’s start with the 49ers. They’ve become known for their defense over the past few seasons, and they have a pretty good unit once again in 2023. San Francisco has slipped a bit as of late, but they’re still eighth in EPA allowed per play and second in points allowed per game.

However, it’s the offense that's really shined this season. Brock Purdy is leading the league in virtually every efficiency metric at QB and has made the 49ers' offense a juggernaut. 

Dec 17, 2023; Glendale, Ariz, United States; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) throws a pass while pressured by Arizona Cardinals linebacker BJ Ojulari (18) during the third quarter at State Farm Stadium. Photo Credit: Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

With Purdy under center in 2023, San Francisco leads the league in EPA per play at .205, which is nearly double Miami's second-place EPA per play of .120. In fact, the gap between the 49ers and Dolphins is wider than the gap between the Dolphins and the eighth-place Lions.

The Ravens have had an excellent defense this season, but there’s simply no stopping this 49ers unit at full strength. Since Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams both returned to the lineup in Week 10, San Francisco has averaged an incredible 34.5 points and 437 yards per game. Their numbers aren’t inflated by a single game either, as the 49ers have been rolling teams every week now for over a month:

I’m not sure if the 49ers have a weakness at this point outside of maybe their head coach. Kyle Shanahan is known to get a bit conservative in big spots even though he has one of the best offenses in history at his disposal.

Are the Ravens up to the task of facing this juggernaut? They’re coming off a comfortable win over the Jaguars on Sunday Night Football in which they outgained Jacksonville by 66 yards in a 16-point victory.

However, that game was a lot closer than it appeared on paper. The Jaguars came away with zero points in the first half despite four trips inside the Ravens' 40-yard line due to two missed field goals, a fumble, and a drive that ended due to terrible clock management. As someone who bet on the Ravens in that contest, I’m not entirely convinced that they deserved such a comfortable win.

Still, good things tend to happen to good teams, and Baltimore is undoubtedly a good team. They’re led by Lamar Jackson, who remains arguably the toughest player in the league to game plan against. Jackson was at his best last week, bobbing and weaving through Jaguars pass-rushers to extend plays and open up rushing lanes. He accounted for 171 passing yards and 97 rushing yards and is a top-five candidate in the running for a second MVP award.

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) rushes for yards during the third quarter of a regular season NFL football matchup Sunday, Dec. 17, 2023 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Baltimore Ravens defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 23-7. Photo Credit: Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Unio / USA TODAY NETWORK

Jackson’s legs could pay dividends in this matchup. The 49ers’ biggest deficiency on defense has been against the run. They’re merely 29th in rushing EPA allowed, and the Ravens boast the best rushing attack in football. They currently lead the league in rushing EPA and success rate, so I’d expect a run-heavy game plan from Baltimore in this matchup.

From an ATS perspective, it’s hard to pass up the opportunity to back Jackson as an underdog. He’s 11-2 ATS for his career when getting points, giving him the second-best ROI among QBs with at least four starts as an underdog since 2005. Only Patrick Mahomes (8-1-1; +67.2% ROI) has provided bettors with a better return in that split.

The late-week injury report will be important to monitor here. The 49ers were without Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave last week, but Shanahan told reporters on Monday that both defensive linemen could return in Week 16. That would be a huge boost for San Francisco's run defense in attempting to stop Jackson & Co.

Picking a side in this game is tough. While early indications are that the sharps like the 49ers, the over seems like a better investment. I was able to get over 45.5 points when the line was first released on Sunday, but it's now up to as high as 47.0 points at some locations. With the 49ers seemingly good for at least 30 points a week, we really don’t need much from the Ravens to hit the over.