Ravens at Bengals

What’s better than an NFL playoff game?

A division rivalry playoff game! These two teams met just last week, and they are obviously very familiar with each other. The Ravens were able to secure a two-point win when these squads met in Baltimore in Week 5, but the Bengals bounced back with a decisive home win in Week 18. That win secured the Bengals’ home-field advantage in this contest instead of having to rely on winning a coin flip.

The big question for the Ravens is who will be starting at quarterback? 

As Pete alluded to in the intro, there is word that the Ravens plan on using both Huntley and Anthony Brown tonight. This uncertainty makes both Baltimore QBs pure fades in all fantasy contests. To make matters worse, no player prop bets are available for the pair of Ravens' signal callers. 

If the Ravens are going to have any shot at pulling off the upset, they’re going to need their defense to be at the top of their game. Fortunately, their defense is quite good. They’ve moved up to seventh in defensive DVOA after a relatively slow start to the year, and they have a top-11 unit against the run and the pass. Adding Roquan Smith from the Bears before the trade deadline has made an impact, with the stud linebacker racking up two sacks, seven tackles for loss, and one interception in his nine games with the team.

Of course, the Ravens are going to have their hands full against the Bengals, who have one of the best offenses in football.

They rank fourth in offensive DVOA, and they have a top-seven unit through the air and on the ground. The Bengals have ridden their dominant offense during their eight-game win streak to end the regular season, averaging 29.0 points per game. Their defense has also improved from last year, but the offense remains the team’s driving force.

The Bengals have the best ATS record in football since the start of last year. They’ve gone 26-11 including last year’s postseason run, and they were 12-4 against the spread in 2022-23.

One trend working in the Ravens’ favor is that divisional playoff matchups tend to favor the underdog. Underdogs are 14-10-1 against the spread in division matchups since 2003, and they’re 3-2 when getting at least a full touchdown. Joe Burrow also owns a record of just 3-4 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown, while John Harbaugh is 14-7 following double-digit points.

Ultimately, my opinion on this game comes down to the quarterback. The Bengals have a great one in Joe Burrow, and that should decide this game.