Ravens at Browns (-2.5) – 38.0 total

Nothing like a good ol’ fashioned division rivalry. Of course, these two teams have a bit more of a rivalry than just sharing the same division. The Browns left Cleveland to become the Baltimore Ravens, and the Browns did not exist from 1996 through 1998. The Browns eventually returned to Cleveland as an expansion team, but you can certainly understand why there would be some bad blood in this rivalry.

Unfortunately for Browns fans, this rivalry has been all Ravens. They own a 35-12 record against Cleveland, and they’ve won 20 of the past 25 head-to-head matchups. That includes a three-point victory at home earlier this season. They’ve also excelled at covering the spread versus the Browns, going 10-4 against the spread in their past 14 matchups.

The Browns will have the benefit of home field on Saturday, and they’ll also have Deshaun Watson under center. Watson was really rusty in his first game following a nearly two-year layoff, but he looked sharp in Week 14 against the Bengals. He completed 61.9% of his passes for 276 yards and one touchdown, although the Browns only mustered 10 points.

Watson should only continue to improve as he gets further removed from his suspension. He was arguably the best quarterback in football in his last full season, leading the league in passing yards, yards per attempt, and yards per completion. He also added 33 touchdowns and just seven interceptions, despite playing for a terrible Texans squad. Watson will face a stiff test from the Ravens – they rank eighth in defensive DVOA – but expect Watson to continue to progress.

Who will be under center for the Ravens remains a mystery. Tyler Huntley started in place of the injured Lamar Jackson last week, but he was unable to finish the game due to a concussion. Anthony Brown was able to finish the job, leading the team to a two-point victory over the Steelers.

Jackson has not been spotted at practice to start the week, and it’s looking more and more likely that he’ll miss his second straight game. The good news is Huntley was able to get in a full practice on Wednesday and is expected to be cleared before Saturday’s contest. Huntley is a clear downgrade from Jackson, but he’s still one of the more capable backup quarterbacks in football. Cleveland ranks merely 27th in defensive DVOA, so he should be able to move the chains in this matchup.

The trends also point towards the Ravens in this spot. Per the Action Network, the Browns are just 9-17 against the spread as a favorite under head coach Kevin Stefanski, while Watson is 10-16-2 as a favorite since 2018. The Ravens are also 30-17-1 against the spread in road games since 2017, including 5-2 this season.