Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers

Heading into last week, you could've made a pretty convincing case that the Ravens were the best team in the NFL. They ranked first in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings, second in EPA allowed per play on defense, and had an offense that was starting to flourish in Todd Monken’s system.

Baltimore picked up another convincing win last Thursday night against the Cincinnati, but they lost star TE Mark Andrews in the process. Andrews was a focal point of the passing offense and Lamar Jackson's most trusted pass-catcher. He'd seen 21% of the team’s targets, 21% of the air yards, and 29% of the end zone looks prior to injury.

The question is – how much do the Ravens drop in the rankings with Andrews out of the picture?

Personally, I don't think they drop too much. Although Andrews is one of the best players in the league at his position, TE isn’t a particularly important position in today's NFL. Isaiah Likely is a competent-enough backup, and Baltimore has enough depth at WR to hopefully pick up the slack from Andrews's absence in the passing game.

Nov 16, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) scrambles during the fourth quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The Ravens could also opt to lean a little heavier into their elite run game. Baltimore currently leads the league in EPA per rush thanks in no small part to what Jackson brings to the table as a mobile QB. He’s averaging 5.3 yards per attempt with a 53.5% success rate through 11 weeks, which are elite figures.

Keaton Mitchell has also given the team a spark in the backfield in recent weeks, and he saw a career-high workload last week. He’s a legit home-run threat with 4.37 speed, so Mitchell brings another dynamic for which defenses need to prepare.

While the Ravens have been one of the best teams in football this year, the Chargers continue to be…well, the Chargers. They entered 2023 with big expectations, but the playoffs seem unlikely once again after having fallen to 4-6 following last week’s loss to the Packers. Los Angeles continues to find ways to lose games that they should win, and head coach Brandon Staley could be on the hot seat.

Nov 19, 2023; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) scrambles away from Green Bay Packers linebacker Preston Smith (91) in the fourth quarter at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

However, the Chargers still have Justin Herbert, and that’s enough to keep them in most games. He’s having a strong statistical season, averaging a career-best 7.8 adjusted yards per attempt and a career-low 1.4% interception rate. Despite having lost Mike Williams to injury earlier in the season, Herbert still currently ranks as the No. 10 QB in the Pro Football Focus (PFF) rankings.

Los Angeles is notorious for playing down to their opponent, but they can also play up to their opponent's level. It’s a big reason why the Chargers have been so good against the Chiefs with Herbert under center. Herbert has played in 12 career games as an underdog of more than a field goal for his career, and he’s gone a sparkling 10-2 ATS in those contests and a perfect 3-0 mark at home in those situations.

The sharps have been high on the Ravens virtually all season, but it appears as though the Chargers might be their preferred side in this contest. This number briefly got up to Chargers +4.0, but that was quickly gobbled up. It’s now back to Chargers +3.5 at most books, and I like Los Angeles at that number. I’m waiting to see if this number might get back to 4.0, but I expect to have a play on the Chargers in our NFL Bet Tracker by the time this game kicks off.