Ravens at Jaguars

This matchup features two division leaders and two teams vying for the first overall seed in the AFC. Despite the close records (Ravens 10-3 - Jaguars 8-5), this game admittedly doesn’t feel super close on paper. 

The Ravens come in ranked 2nd in EPA per play on defense and have generally been one of the toughest units to run or pass on all season. They have been able to battle through injuries to key players all season and may have to again as starting S Kyle Hamilton (knee) seems likely to miss this game with a knee sprain. 

Offensively, the Jaguars will need a massive game from Trevor Lawrence, who was able to play through an ankle sprain last week and still be effective in the loss to Cleveland. Lawrence has played better as the season has progressed and is up to 9th in EPA per play for the year among QBs. He’ll also be another week removed from his ankle injury, which should help his mobility, something that Jacksonville has benefited from immensely on offense—with Lawrence averaging 19.9 rush yards per game and scoring 4 TDs on the year. 

With no Christian Kirk (IR) in the lineup last week, it was Evan Engram who led the Jaguars in receiving with 9 catches, 95 yards, and 2 TDs on 11 targets. Engram is a matchup issue for any defense, and the Ravens have allowed TDs to TEs in back-to-back games. Engram went the first 11 games with no TDs but now has scored three times in two games and could be in line to keep that streak going against the Ravens. From a utilization perspective, WR Zay Jones has now turned into a near every-down player with Kirk out (93% route rate the last two games) and Parker Washington (63% route rate last week) is taking more snaps as the WR3. 

As for Baltimore, they’ll face a Jaguars defense that features extreme splits on defense in terms of their efficiency against the rush vs the pass. Jacksonville ranks 13th in EPA per play on defense but is 2nd in success rate against the rush, but only 17th in success rate against the pass. Top cornerback Tyson Campbell (shoulder) has been out a lot this season and is likely in danger of missing this game as well. Both Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham should be in line for big games, regardless of whether he plays or not. 

Nov 16, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers (4) runs against Cincinnati Bengals safety Dax Hill (23) during the first quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Beckham is still only playing about 50-60% of the snaps, but his usage has gone way up since Mark Andrews went down. Beckham has seen 22 targets over his last three games and has gone over 90 yards receiving in two of those starts. He could certainly be considered a solid alternate line target for betting this week. Flowers remains a near every-down player for the Ravens, and while he tends to get most of his targets around the line of scrimmage, this could be a spot against a weak Jaguars secondary where he eventually breaks a big play or two and flirts with the 100-yard barrier. 

This game opened at 3.0 on the spread, but Baltimore early money has pushed this up to 3.5. Certainly the Ravens have been the better team this year, but the Jaguars have been solid for bettors, going 8-5 ATS. All three of the Ravens' losses this season, as well, have come to AFC opponents (one to the AFC South Colts) so if a close game breaks out, it wouldn’t be overly shocking if the Jaguars were able to steal this. 

I like Doug Pederson as a coach, so betting against the Jaguars isn’t overly appealing to me in this spot, but the Ravens' WR props will be of interest. Both Flowers and Beckham are in prime positions for breakout weeks. With Lawrence playing well and a week removed form his injury, a solid performance by him also likely helps keep this game close, which should help the yardage totals for both those aforementioned players.