Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans

The NFL has another early Sunday start in Week 6 with the Ravens and Titans squaring off in London. This is the third straight week with a London game, but it’s the first of the year not featuring the Jaguars. Jacksonville is basically London West at this point, so it'll be interesting to see how Baltimore and Tennessee adjust.

These two squads are taking very different approaches to the time difference.

The Ravens have decided to spend the entire week in England to prepare for this game. They headed to London on Monday morning, which is easily the earliest that any team has done so this season. The previous three teams all left on Thursday, which is also what Baltimore did in their previous London game back in 2017. However, the Ravens were routed 44-7 by the Jaguars in that contest, so perhaps this is why they're trying a different travel schedule this time around.

Oct 8, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel motions to his team during the first quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Mike Vrabel has stated that the Titans will head to London after Thursday’s practice, so they’ll have an early Friday arrival. The two wildly different approaches to travel this week creates another interesting wrinkle in what should be a stylistic clash. It’s hard to know which method will pay dividends, but I tend to think that spending the entire week in London certainly can’t hurt.

As for the game itself, Baltimore stands out as the superior team. Their offensive numbers don’t jump off the page this season – they’re 17th in points per game and 12th in yards – but they’ve dealt with some crucial injuries on that side of the ball. Now that they’re getting healthier on offense, their scoring results should improve.

The Ravens had a chance for a big road win in Pittsburgh last week, but they repeatedly shot themselves in the foot. Baltimore's receivers had seven drops, the most by any team in a single game this season, and a few of those drops took points directly off the scoreboard:

This is a great spot for Baltimore's passing attack to get back on track. Tennessee's defense has been solid against the run this season, but their pass defense is a disaster. The Titans are just 27th in EPA allowed per dropback despite having faced a pretty mediocre schedule of opposing QBs thus far.

They did have to square off with Justin Herbert in Week 2, but Tennessee also allowed 282 passing yards to Derek Carr, 263 passing yards to Deshaun Watson, and 236 combined passing yards to Anthony Richardson and Gardner Minshew. Lamar Jackson should be able to post one of his best games of the year as long as his receivers' gloves aren't covered in butter this week.

On the other side, the Ravens defense has looked like a monster. They’re second in EPA allowed per play, trailing only the Browns in that metric. They haven’t faced a gauntlet of a schedule either, but it’s not like the Titans are a huge step up in weight class. Tennessee current ranks just 26th in points per game and 21st in yardage per game, and their passing attack has been disappointing.

Sep 24, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton (14) sacks Indianapolis Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew (10) during the first quarter during the first quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

This line has steadily moved in the Ravens’ favor since having opened at -3.5. Baltimore is up to -4.5 at some locations, although some sharp activity on the Titans has moved it back to 4.0 at others.

While the Ravens are the better team on paper, the Titans have made a living of covering in these types of spots under Vrabel. They’re 26-16-1 ATS as an underdog during the regular season, including 17-9 when getting more than a field goal.

Additionally, Jackson has some drastic favorite/underdog splits. He’s 11-2 ATS for his career when getting points, but Jackson has been just 25-32 as a favorite. His biggest struggles have been as a home favorite, and this will be his first game as a favorite at a neutral site.

Nearly all of the early money has sided with the Titans in this matchup per the Action Network, and while I expect the public to like Baltimore on Sunday, it’s clear that the pros have some interest in Tennessee. The trends support the Titans at +4.5.