Ravens at Steelers (-2.5) – 37.0 total 

The Ravens lead the AFC North with an 8-4 record, but there’s a solid argument that they’re also currently the weakest team in that division. They’ve scored less than 14 points in two of their last three games and needed a late game TD to salvage a one-point home win against the hapless Broncos last week. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers have been getting healthy on defense and are 3-1 over their last four games. They've allowed 17 points or less in each of those three wins and have given up the fifth-fewest rushing yards at just 4.1 yards per carry against.

The news out of Baltimore this week will center around Lamar Jackson, who looks destined to miss this week and potentially multiple games with a sprained PCL. Jackson is also without a long-term deal at the moment so hurrying back to play before he’s 100% healthy may not be at the top of his agenda. That leaves the Ravens again relying on the services of Tyler Huntley at quarterback, who replaced Jackson early last week and was able to salvage a win against Denver after a late two-yard TD run. Huntley may not be quite as explosive as Jackson, but he ran a 4.56 40-yard dash out of college. He has averaged 5.87 yards per carry to this point in his career, rushing for no less than 40 yards in all of the games where he’s taken the majority of the snaps at quarterback. 

In short, don’t expect much change in the offensive game plan for the Ravens this week, who rush the ball around 31 times per game (eighth-most in the league). Huntley did attempt 32 passes last week, but some of that was a product of being down late and the third-year backup only averaged 5.84 yards per throw. Baltimore’s WRs will continue to be a wasteland of mediocrity for fantasy purposes, but one player who could still thrive is TE Mark Andrews, who recorded 10 or more catches and over 100 yards in two of the four games Huntley started in 2021. The Steelers secondary has continued to be a source of weakness for the team and they’ve allowed the tenth-most receptions to the TE position this year coming into Week 14. Andrews may be a good over target this week, as we can likely expect his player props to open with suppressed totals thanks to the quarterback change. 

On the other side of the ball, the Steelers will almost certainly attempt to deploy a conservative game plan of their own. Pittsburgh has rushed the ball the seventh-most times of any team in the league over the last three weeks and it’s helped limit the mistakes from rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett, who hasn’t thrown an INT in three straight games. This will be a tough matchup for RB Najee Harris, however, who has topped 17 or more rushes in three of his last four games. The Ravens rank sixth in defensive rush DVOA and have allowed a paltry 2.5 yards per carry to opposing rushers over their last three games. 

If Pittsburgh wants to move the ball this week, they’ll likely have to attack the Ravens’ secondary which has allowed the sixth-most yards to opposing WRs this season. Baltimore has been burned by solid outside receiving threats numerous times this year and have a pair of smaller corners in Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphries, who make for ripe targets for the 6 '3 George Pickens. Pickens' slow game last week (two targets and one reception for two yards) is likely to create a solid buy-low opportunity in props and daily fantasy. The rookie comes into this game ranking 18th in total air yards this year among WRs (despite seeing just 60 targets) and has gone over 50 receiving yards in five of his last eight games. 

These two teams mirror each other in numerous ways. Their quarterbacks are both limited from a passing perspective, but are both mobile, and both teams have solid rush defenses but vulnerable secondaries. The total doesn’t give us much wiggle room at 37.0 but expect a closely fought, low scoring battle with Pittsburgh’s more well-rounded offense likely to be the difference on home field.