Saints at 49ers (-9.5) – 43.5 total

The Saints and 49ers meet in an inter-conference game that will have big playoff implications for both teams. The 4-7 Saints are on the verge of being too far back to make a late-season run while the 49ers have to keep winning to fend off the Seahawks, who have an easy match-up with the Raiders.  

From a lineup perspective, Alvin Kamara is suddenly someone to watch after he missed Thursday’s practice with an illness. If he somehow misses this game, the remaining receivers would get a bump in potential target share, which is something to keep in mind for props this week. The QB position for New Orleans is always worth watching but after Andy Dalton completed 21 of 25 passes for 260 and 3 TDs against the Rams, it’s safe to say his job is secure for at least this week. 

The -9.5 spread this week may feel disrespectful to the Saints, but the 49ers have begun to look like a varsity blue chip squad who is ready to assert their dominance over a weaker NFC Conference. On offense, San Francisco has averaged 30.33 points in their last three games and has done well at seamlessly inserting Christian McCaffrey, who grabbed a 21% team target share and seven catches for 67 yards against Arizona. Expect them to keep working the mismatches McCaffrey creates against linebackers out of the backfield against New Orleans, a team he put up 108 rush yards against back in Week 3 as a member of the Panthers. 

The 49ers defense have been just as dominant of late, allowing just 4.2 yards per play over the last two weeks, and have allowed just 3.4 yards per carry this season. With a rush game that has produced less than 60 yards on the ground in each of their last two games, New Orleans is almost certainly going to have to rely on the big play ability of Chris Olave if they want to keep this game close. Olave recorded his fourth 100+ yard game of the season against the Rams last week and remains second in overall air yards among all WRs this year. The 49ers have allowed the sixth-most catches to WRs over the last two weeks and Olave makes for both a solid DFS play and potential over target for yards and receptions in this game. 

49ers games have crushed the over in three of the last four weeks and New Orleans is 5-3 at hitting overs in non-conference games this year. The Saints had a solid Week 11 win, but I don’t expect them to give the 49ers much trouble. It’s just a question of whether Andy Dalton and Chris Olave can keep this game interesting long enough for New Orleans to eke out a cover and get us to the over of what feels like a low number at 43.5. I’d bet yes on the latter (over the total) and likely pass altogether on the former (spread).