New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts 

Both of these teams come into Week 8 0-2 in their last two games and in desperate need of a turnaround win after excruciatingly close losses last week. 

The Colts had a lot of moral victories in Week 7—putting up 38 points on Cleveland, Jonathan Taylor returning to some form (18-75-TD)—but are now just 3-4 and multiple games back of Jacksonville. The Colts got unlucky at the end of the game last week with some ridiculous penalties called against them but also allowed PJ Walker and a Nick Chubb-less backfield to put up 39 points. 

While everyone loves the spunk and tenacity that Gardner Minshew (305-2-1, 3-29-2) has shown, he has now committed an astounding 8 turnovers in his last two games alone. Minshew averaged 13.3 yards per attempt and made a ton of big plays throughout the game last week, but he was also catching a Browns defense that was coming off a tough game to the 49ers. This week, the Saints will be well rested and likely out for blood after starting so poorly against the Jaguars. 

New Orleans' defense is still 7th in overall DVOA and 5th in yards per pass attempt against. They had a few sloppy plays against the Jaguars but also held Trevor Lawrence to just 204 yards passing and Travis Etienne Jr. to 53 yards on the ground. The Colts undoubtedly have been the better offense (12th in overall DVOA), but the turnovers have been a massive issue and they face a defense this week that is fifth in total takeaways. 

Indianapolis may be able to exploit a weakness in slot coverage here with Josh Downs (5-125-1), who had a career day against Cleveland. The Saints allowed Christian Kirk (5-90-1) to break off some big plays last week and also gave up 100+ yards to Chris Godwin back in Week 3. 

Oct 19, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws during the second quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports

While I like the idea of betting against Gardner Minshew and his turnover factory, Dennis Allen and Derek Carr are one of the least inspiring HC/QB duos in the league. Allen is now 22-36-2 ATS for his career, one of the worst marks of any head coach over the last 20 seasons. The Saints are also just 4-7-1 ATS on the road under Allen since the start of last year. 

Carr has thrown for over 300 yards in each of his last two games now, but he’s needed over 50 pass attempts in each game to achieve that mark. Going up against PJ Walker last week helped bring down some of their defensive metrics, but the Colts are still a decent matchup for Carr and they’ll need him to be more efficient as the Saints' run game remains one of the worst in the worst in the league (3.5 YPC). 

Carr has been especially inefficient when targeting Chris Olave this season, who saw 15 targets last week against a poor Jaguars secondary but could only manage a 7-57 (8.14 yards per catch) line. That’s hardly inspiring from one of the best WRs in the game who averaged 14.5 yards per catch in 2022 and was an air yards king. 

Complicating matters for the Saints this week is that Olave was arrested Monday night for excessive speeding. Olave has already been released (from jail) and seems likely to play this week, but it’s another headache for a team whose offense has not gelled anywhere near the level people had hoped for to this point. 

Neither of these teams inspires a ton of confidence, but the Saints' defense is still the best unit in this game—and will likely keep them in the game, until late, at the very least. The Saints (+1.5 to +7.5) also make sense as a teaser leg for that reason as well. 

The total has risen now to 43.5 in spots (open 41.5), and with a dome environment, the Colts' fast-paced offense, and Gardner Minshew being a turnover machine, this does feel like a spot where we could again see points. The over hasn’t been kind to bettors this year, but Colts games are 5-2 to the over in 2023.