Saints at Eagles

Let’s see how the Eagles approach this game. Jalen Hurts looks like he’s on track to play after missing Week 16 with a sprained shoulder. Philadelphia still needs a win to lock up their playoff bye and, coincidentally, they hold New Orleans’ first-round pick, which would increase in value with a Saints loss. And with injuries to key defenders, they’ll need to keep Andy Dalton off the field as much as possible.

I don’t know what’s happening with Alvin Kamara on or off the field. In his first four games with Dalton, Kamara had 0.33 TPRR and was fourth in targets among all RBs. But since Week 12, he’s down to 17th with a 0.23 TPRR. Philadelphia is still top 5 in rushing EPA allowed, but pass-catching rushers have remained fantasy relevant in PPR formats (Tony Pollard 8-61-0, David Montgomery 3-38-1, Aaron Jones 4-56-1). If we can’t rely on Kamara, there are a couple other options to consider.

The Saints only deployed Taysom Hill as a rusher, with Chris Olave (hamstring) and Jarvis Landry sent to IR. Hill’s seven red-zone touches are second only to Kamara’s ten. If you’re trying to catch up after Dalton Schultz’s two touchdowns, Hill could be the wild card you need. And with Olave taking 44.0% of his targets from the slot, New Orleans’ primary options could be useful in Week 17.

For Philadelphia, let’s assume they play it safe and roll with Gardner Minshew. The Eagles' passing rate decreased from a -2% PROE over Hurts’ last six games to -7% against Dallas. But Minshew still had a healthy 10.7 air yards per attempt, keeping A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith as top-20 options. The only real question is what to do with Dallas Goedert.

Goedert ran a route on 88.1% of Minshew’s dropbacks in his return. He only earned three targets, but he had the highest aDOT on the squad and more YAC than Smith. The Saints have yet to allow a TE above 50 yards in a single game, and the last to find the paint was Cade Otton in Week 13. Goedert did match the team-high in red-zone routes, but he’ll need a touchdown to find himself in the TE1 ranks after Sunday.