New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers

The New Orleans Saints travel north to Green Bay fresh off of a road win in Carolina on Monday Night Football. 

On the other side, the Packers return home following a disappointing loss on the road in Atlanta. Green Bay played well but gave up a 12-point lead in the 4th quarter and lost by one. 

Both teams have started the season well, and that is reflected in the line, with the Packers just slight home favorites (-2 points at writing). 

Unfortunately, we have a lot to watch on the injury front, with multiple fantasy-relevant players uncertain for this one. 

For the Packers, Aaron Jones and Christian Watson missed their Week 2 tilt and would be big boosts if they can make it back to face a Saints defense that hasn’t surrendered 20 points in 10 straight games.

The Saints are without Alvin Kamara for one more week due to his suspension and are likely to be without Jamaal Williams, who suffered a hamstring injury in Week 2. This is a prime opportunity for Kendre Miller if he can return to the lineup after dealing with a hamstring injury of his own for the last few weeks. 

Keep an eye on the Saints’ transactions this week, as they will have to bring someone in if Miller and Williams are trending toward out. In that event, we can expect Tony Jones Jr. to be a big part of the offense again following his two-TD performance. 

Vegas doesn’t expect a high-scoring affair, with the game total currently at 42.5 points. This seems about right, as neither team is particularly aggressive in terms of situation-neutral pass rate. 

If the Packers are without Watson again, we can expect the WR usage to remain similar to what we’ve seen in the first two weeks, with both Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed in the mix as high-upside but low-floor flex plays. 

If Watson returns, I’ll be steering clear of Doubs and Reed until we get more information on how the WR rotation will work going forward. 

The Saints offense hasn’t exactly hit the ground running this year, but they’ve done just enough to start 2-0 and can hold out hope that things will get better as Derek Carr settles into the offense and builds chemistry with his receivers.

Per Hayden Winks’ expected fantasy points model, the Saints' offense has leaned heavily on their WRs so far this season. 

The opportunity is there for Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed to put up points with this usage, but they don’t have the easiest matchup on paper this week. 

The Packers' defense has been successful at limiting opposing WR production, ranking 5th against the position in PPR scoring through two weeks. However, this comes with a major asterisk as they have played the Bears and Falcons so far, the two worst passing offenses from 2022.

This should be a tight contest with a lot riding on who ends up being available on Sunday. If the Packers get either of their top playmakers back, I like them to win at home.