New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots

This matchup features two teams that can’t seem to put it all together. Both squads had playoff aspirations heading into this season, but neither has lived up to the billing so far.

The Saints are currently sitting at 2-2, but they could very easily be 3-1. They were leading 17-0 in the fourth quarter against the Packers in Week 3 but they were unable to finish the job after Derek Carr suffered an injury.

Carr returned to the lineup in Week 4, but the team put forth their worst effort of the year against the Buccaneers. They managed just 197 yards of total offense and lost to Tampa Bay 26-9.

The question is: was that a sign of things to come, or will Carr and company bounce back?

Prior to Week 4, the Saints’ offensive metrics were average. They ranked 17th in EPA per play, and they were basically right in the middle of the pack both on the ground and through the air. New Orleans's offense was nothing to get excited about, but it wasn’t a bad unit, either.

The wheels came off the bus in Week 4.

The Saints ranked just 29th in EPA per play against the Buccaneers, and it's not as though Tampa Bay is a particularly intimidating matchup on defense, so it's a bit concerning.

Still, I’m willing to write it off as one subpar week. Not only was Carr dealing with an injury, but the team was also integrating Alvin Kamara into the lineup for the first time this season.

If Carr is healthier in Week 5, the offense should return to a level of respectability.

Oct 1, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs against Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Carlton Davis III (24) at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports

As long as that happens, New Orleans has the defense eke out a win on the road at Foxborough. They’re 10th in EPA/play allowed, and they’ve looked dominant at times this season. Granted, their best performances have come against the Titans and Panthers, two teams with terrible offenses, but the Saints have shown the ability to take advantage of quality matchups.

The Patriots undoubtedly qualify as a quality matchup. There was hope that Bill O’Brien would help revive Mac Jones and a Patriots passing attack that was dreadful in 2022, but that hasn't come to fruition.

Through four games, New England currently ranks 28th in EPA per play, and Jones is on pace to have the worst season of his career. He’s down to just 5.4 adjusted yards per attempt, which is a far cry from the 7.0 he averaged as a rookie.

Jones remains the Patriots’ starting QB for the time being, but his hold on the job is loosening. Bailey Zappe relieved him last week at Dallas, and it’s possible that the team could make a permanent switch if Jones doesn’t improve quickly. Zappe flashed some upside as a starter in 2022, so the team might want to see if he can give the offense an upgrade.

Unfortunately, the passing game is not the only issue. Despite all their struggles on that side of the ball last year, they could at least pound the rock. This season, the Patriots' rushing attack has all but evaporated.

Sep 24, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets safety Jordan Whitehead (3) hangs on to New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

New England currently ranks a miserable 29th in rushing EPA, and Rhamondre Stevenson is averaging a paltry 2.7 yards per carry. He averaged 5.0 yards per attempt last year, but thus far on the year, Stevenson hasn’t come close to resembling the same player.

Additionally, the Patriots’ defense entered the year with some solid expectations. While things haven’t been nearly as bad on that side of the ball, they’re far from dominant. They’re ranked 12th in EPA allowed per play heading into this game, but they also just lost Matt Judon and Christian Gonzalez to injuries during the loss to the Cowboys last week.

Ultimately, these two teams feel pretty similar, and with the Patriots listed as 1.5-point home favorites, Vegas is saying that they’re about the same on a neutral field, which feels right to me.

There has been a smidge of early sharp activity on New Orleans, so this line could continue to move in their favor. This number was listed as Saints +2.5 on the look-ahead line, so it’s dipped a bit even with their dreadful offensive showing against the Buccaneers last week.

This is not a game where I see much betting value, but I would side with New Orleans if forced to pick a side. They’ve at least shown glimpses of a competent offense, which is more than we can say about New England through four games.

Both teams are roughly the same defensively, so I’d hope Carr is closer to 100% healthy this week.