Seattle Seahawks @ Cincinnati Bengals

This is one of the most intriguing games of the season thus far. Cincinnati entered the year with big expectations, but they’ve largely been a disaster. However, the Bengals did bounce back with their most impressive showing of the season in Week 5, recording season-highs in both scoring and yards against the Cardinals.

The question is: was that a one-week aberration against an inferior opponent, or are the Bengals officially back?

Personally, I’m a bit skeptical.

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) throws the ball against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium in Glendale on Oct. 8, 2023. Photo Credit: Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

Joe Burrow put together an outstanding performance at Arizona, completing 36 of 46 passes for 317 yards and three TDs. That said, he still wasn’t exactly elite. Burrow was just 13th among QBs last week in EPA + CPOE composite, and he ranked 10th in Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade.

A lot of Burrow’s success last week can be attributed to Ja’Marr Chase. The Cardinals simply had no answer for the superstar WR and allowed Chase to torch them for 15 catches, 192 yards, and three TDs. Chase saw a whopping 19 targets in that contest, and 15 of them were classified as open or wide open:

Chase was not alone on that list. Tyler Boyd and Trenton Irwin also ranked in the top 10 in open/wide-open targets last week, so Burrow had easy pickings virtually all game long. Arizona has two cornerbacks ranked in the bottom 10 in PFF coverage grade – the only team in the league with two bottom-10 corners – so it’s about as easy as it gets from a matchup perspective.

The Seahawks aren’t going to confuse anyone with the 2000 Ravens defensively, but they’re at least slightly better. Seattle currently ranks 19th in EPA allowed per dropback, and all three of their cornerbacks rank in the top 36 at the position in PFF grade. Devon Witherspoon looks like a potential stud, while Tariq Woolen and Michael Jackson are both above-average.

In other words, there should be much fewer “gimmes” for Burrow and Chase than there were last week. If Burrow's calf is still less than 100%, the Bengals’ offense could return to their early-season slumber.

Oct 2, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) drops back to pass against the New York Giants during the first quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Conversely, the Seahawks’ offense should have no problem moving the ball against Cincinnati. Their offense has been excellent to start the year, ranking sixth in points per game. They have plenty of talented skill-position players, and Geno Smith has continued to prove that last year’s breakout wasn’t a fluke. He currently ranks 12th among qualifying QBs in EPA + CPOE composite, and he’s ninth among QBs in PFF grade.

Seattle is also coming off their bye, so they have a significant rest advantage. Teams have unsurprisingly fared well when coming off a bye against teams on normal rest, having gone 232-199-12 ATS dating back to 2005. That’s not an overwhelming return on investment, but it’s still a solid edge.

This line is currently sitting right around the key number of 3.0 points. It opened with the Bengals as 3.5-point favorites, but the sharps quickly gobbled up that number. The Bengals are down to -3.0 on DraftKings and FanDuel, and they’re down to -2.5 on Caesars and BetMGM.

With three being the most important number in NFL betting, I’m locking in a play on the Seahawks in our free Bet Tracker. I’m of the opinion that the Bengals’ offensive explosion in Week 5 was more a reflection of the Cardinals’ porous pass defense, so I think that Cincinnati is being a bit overvalued, even at home.