Seahawks at Chiefs (-9.5) – 48.5 total

The situation couldn’t be worse for Seattle. After their loss to San Francisco, they’re in must-win territory to keep their playoff hopes alive. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have decided to play with their food and pull out narrow wins with late-game theatrics. Kansas City’s dominance in December isn’t anything new, but it doesn’t mean the Seahawks don’t have a chance.

I realize they’re 9.5-point road dogs, so I’m not calling for the upset. But the offense can find ways to move the ball without Tyler Lockett. Marquise Goodwin slides into the WR2 position, with 62.5% of his routes coming from the slot over the last four games. And with Kansas City having the 13th-highest blitz rate, Seattle, like teams before them, would be right to look to their (now full-time) interior option.

Jerry Jeudy caught one of his three scores against the Chiefs from the slot two weeks ago, and Tyler Boyd had 60 yards on five targets in Week 13. Keenan Allen, with a hobbled Mike Williams, had an 8-94-0 stat line in his first game back from injury. Goodwin vaults into the WR3/flex conversation in his new role. Noah Fant, who has earned double Will Dissly’s target share since the bye, at 9.6%, falls into the sea of streaming options (22% rostered in Yahoo! Leagues). But my eye is on another pass-catching option for Geno Smith.

Kenneth Walker III’s 5.4% collegiate target share was the subject of much debate over the offseason. He’s not Alvin Kamara, but the rookie has earned 23 targets since taking over in Week 6. An eight-target outing against Tampa buoys his total, but he’s matched the ancillary receivers in route participation over his last four games.

Last week, Walker returned to handle all of Seattle's third-down and short-distance carries. Travis Homer took one two-minute touch and worked in as a receiver. But so did Walker, which set up Seattle’s only score. Between Marlon Mack’s long score and Samaje Perine (7-49-0), Kansas City has had issues accounting for receiving backs, Walker already had fringe top-12 potential with his 76.2% share of the RB touches. A workload expansion into the passing game gives him top-12 upside against a defense that has allowed RB1 performances to the competent rushers they’ve faced (Perine – RB3, Austin Ekeler – RB11, and Derrick Henry – RB6).

For Kansas City, maybe “Isiah Pacheco week” needed to start at Arrowhead. I get it. Houston’s run defense was bottom 10 in rushing DVOA, and Dallas’ success the week before all fueled the fire for Pacheco to go nuclear. But the conditions are similar for the Chiefs’ ground game on Saturday.

Seattle is 30th in rushing success rate allowed since their bye. In Week 14, the Panthers’ longest run by an RB was 16 yards, and they still dropped 180 on the Seahawks. Over the last four weeks, only the Giants have given up more explosive runs than Seattle (19). But Pacheco stalls in the RB2 ranks, with McKinnon’s usage on the rise.

In PPR leagues, both are viable, with McKinnon’s outlandish 17 targets over the last two weeks. The passing volume gives him a safe floor, and the red-zone work lifts his ceiling. I’m not expecting another no-look toss for a score, but either RB has value in season-long leagues with a potential championship on the line.

Our only other concern should be which of Patrick Mahomes’ receivers to start. But, sometimes, the simplest answer is the best one. JuJu Smith-Schuster is the only WR ahead of Travis Kelce in targets since Smith-Schuster returned to the starting lineup in Week 13. He leads the team in red-zone targets and has just one fewer chain-moving reception than Kelce. With Mahomes on his path to another MVP, Smith-Schuster’s role becomes pivotal when fantasy managers need it the most.