Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants

We’re back to just a single Monday Night Football game in Week 4, but it should be a good one. The Seahawks will travel to New York to take on the Giants in a battle between two of the biggest surprise teams from 2022. Both teams managed to make the playoffs last year despite having entered the 2022 season with minimal expectations.

For Seattle, the big surprise came at QB. They chose to jettison longtime starter Russell Wilson last offseason to Denver, and after beating out Drew Lock, Geno Smith was handed the reins to the offense. Smith had basically been a career backup after losing his starting job with the Jets, so most people were expecting a significant drop-off in production for the Seahawks.

Instead, Smith turned in a Pro Bowl-worthy season.

He racked up 4,282 yards with 30 TDs to just 11 INTs, and Smith's 69.8% completion percentage led the league last season. He also finished 12th at the position in Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade, all while Wilson dipped all the way to 36th with the Broncos. Not only did the Seahawks manage to survive without Wilson, they actually improved.

Sep 24, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) passes against the Carolina Panthers during the first quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

So far in 2023, Smith is proving that his career year in 2022 wasn’t a fluke. The Seahawks currently rank fourth in EPA per play on offense, and Smith is eighth in EPA + CPOE composite. The Seahawks have also had one of the best rushing attacks in football from an efficiency standpoint.

Seattle dropped their first game of the season to the Rams, but it’s clear that Los Angeles isn't going to be a pushover in 2023 like they were last year. The Seahawks' Week 1 loss looks much more defensible in hindsight, and they've since bounced back with wins over the Lions and Panthers the last two weeks.

There’s no reason to expect Seattle to slow down now. Their trio of starting WRs, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, is arguably the best WR trio in the NFL. Rookie Zach Charbonnet also took a step forward in Week 3, giving the team a solid 1-2 punch at RB with Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker.

The bigger question lies with the defense. As good as their offense has been, the Seahawks' defense has been equally unimpressive. They currently rank 27th in EPA allowed per play, and they’ve struggled against the pass in particular. Even Andy Dalton was able to torch them, going off for 362 yards and two TDs in his first start of the season.

On the other side, the Giants’ surprise 2022 campaign was attributed mostly to good coaching. Brian Daboll won Coach of the Year in his first season in New York after taking a largely uninspiring group of skill-position players and leading them to nine wins.

Of course, it’s hard to separate good coaching from good luck.

Daboll has been unable to reclaim that magic to start 2023. The Giants have been absolutely shellacked in two of their first three games, although it's worth noting that those blowout losses did come against elite defenses in the Cowboys and 49ers. Still, New York looked dreadful in the first half against the Cardinals before a second-half comeback victory, but Arizona also may not be as bad as most expected after their upset of Dallas.

The Giants were widely expected to regress in 2023, but I’m not sure anyone thought that it would be this ugly. Fortunately, New York has at least shown some signs of life offensively. They currently rank 12th in EPA per play on offense despite having run into two potential juggernauts in the Cowboys and 49ers.

Against a much more beatable Seattle defense, Monday night could be a bounce-back performance for Daniel Jones and company. However, it's worth mentioning that Pro Bowl safety Jamal Adams's expected return this week could give the Seahawks' defense a much-needed boost.

Sep 21, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) runs with the ball ahead of San Francisco 49ers defensive end Kerry Hyder Jr. (92) in the first quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

It would also help the Giants if they could get a bit healthier. Andrew Thomas has missed the past two games with an injury, and he was one of the best offensive tackles in football last season. Saquon Barkley also sat out in Week 3 with a high ankle sprain.

There’s a chance that both players could be back in the lineup on Monday night, which would be a huge boost. Thomas's potential return could massively upgrade a Giants’ offensive line that currently ranks 31st in PFF pass blocking grade through three weeks.

New York was initially listed as a small underdog in this matchup, but the sharps have been all over the Giants since the line opened. They’ve received 77% of the early spread dollars on just 35% of the bets per the Action Network, which has pushed this line back to Giants -1.5.

Daboll was outstanding in these spots last season. As an underdog or favorite of less than three points in 2022, New York was 11-4 against the spread. They’re 0-2 in that split so far this season, but the Seahawks aren't in the same elite tier as the Cowboys and 49ers.

Ultimately, this one comes down to Thomas. If he’s able to return, I like the Giants to get back into the win column. If he’s out once again, I’ll probably pass on this primetime game.