Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions 

The Seahawks are coming into Detroit after an embarrassing opening week loss to the Rams.

Los Angeles was able to run 81 plays on offense to Seattle’s 51 as their secondary cratered, allowing a very rejuvenated Matthew Stafford to pick them apart and post a 88.9 total QBR—the second highest of week 1. 

The Seahawks' secondary was missing S Jamal Adams and two corners in Kyu Blu Kelly and fifth overall draft pick Devon Witherspoon.

The lack of depth/talent was evident from the get-go. Rookie Puka Nacua (10-119) was able to feast underneath for the first part of this game against zone coverage, while Tutu Atwell (6-119) easily beat people downfield and over the middle in the second half. 

To say this week’s game with Detroit sets up as a #smashspot for Amon-Ra. St. Brown (6-71-TD) may be an understatement.

The Chiefs' physical secondary was able to keep St. Brown under wraps somewhat, but he still posted a solid opening night and faces a unit that was allowing rookies and unproven 3rd-stringers to snag balls at will for much of week 1.

Witherspoon’s status is key for Seattle, but even if he can go it’s hard to see this group righting the ship very quickly. There was a lack of athleticism and discipline in the secondary that was evident from the get-go against the Rams, and St. Brown is a master route runner who was the highest graded receiver against man-to-man coverage in 2022.

Watch the injury news on Witherspoon because there doesn’t appear to be anyone else on Seattle’s roster capable of matching up with St. Brown. 

Given how open Tyler Higbee (3-49) was able to get on a couple of plays, this is also a good spot for rookie Sam LaPorta (5-39) to really break out.

The rookie played on 83% of the snaps against KC and converted all five of his targets. Given that Higbee was able to accumulate 43 YAC against Seattle, LaPorta’s yardage total (which he went over on in week 1) may be worth attacking this week. 

Sep 7, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) scores a touchdown as Kansas City Chiefs safety Mike Edwards (21) and safety Bryan Cook (6) miss the tackle during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Seattle can take some comfort in how Geno Smith (16-126-1) and Kenneth Walker (12-64, 4-3) looked in week 1. Walker averaged over 5.0 yards per carry, led the Seahawks' RBs in targets, and played on over 60% of the snaps. There is no Zach Charbonnet takeover coming anytime soon. 

Smith started extremely well, but was forced to play from behind for much of the day because of his defense. There was no rhythm to Seattle’s offense in the second half as the Rams' offense had the ball for 5+ minutes at a time, and Aaron Donald disrupting things when they didn’t.

It’s worth noting that Patrick Mahomes was the second most pressured quarterback and also had the third most scrambles (6) of any QB in week 1. Smith had three or more carries in 13 of 18 games played in 2022.

His rushing prop may be worth attacking in week 2, against a Lions front that forced Mahomes from the pocket a lot in week 1. 

The Seahawks' defensive front didn’t allow a ton of big plays on the ground (2.4 yards per carry allowed), but the Hawks still had to face 37 carries against and eventually got worn down (3 rushing TDs allowed).

The Lions' offensive line is one of the best in the league, so we could again see a decent game from David Montgomery, especially if the Seahawks' defense can’t step up and help flip the time of possession battle. 

The Lions will likely up Jahmyr Gibbs’ snap count in week 2 a little after giving him just nine touches against the Chiefs. However, it was Montgomery who dominated the red zone work in week 1, taking 4 touches to Gibbs’s 1. 

Gibbs remains worth targeting for PPR points or receiving yards against this poor of a coverage unit. For betting, an alternative line on his longest rushing play or total receiving yards is also worth looking at. 

This spread in this game was hovering around Detroit -3.0-3.5 until the Hawks melted down in the second half against the Rams.

Seattle’s poor play is worrisome, but Jared Goff is not Matthew Stafford and asking him to cover a full 6.0 points, with a dangerous offense on the other side, makes Detroit tough to back. 

There could be some Seattle buyback, and seeing this line close at -5.5 or lower wouldn’t be overly shocking. Where this goes off will certainly give us a good indication of how the market feels about Seattle going forward.